Iowa Senate odds favor Democrat Josh Turek for the first time at 52%

Democrat Josh Turek has been the underdog in the Iowa Senate race, historically trailing behind Republican Ashley Hinson in prediction market-implied odds.

However, Turek’s chances have increased nearly eight percentage points in the last 24 hours to a record 52% on Monday, overtaking Hinson as the market leader for the first time, according to Kalshi’s event contract on the Iowa Senate winner.

Hinson, who had an over 80% probability of winning at the start of the event contract in December 2024, now has a 48% chance of securing the Senate seat representing Iowa.

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Turek's rising odds come as the final poll conducted by the New York Times and Siena College between Oct. 23 and Nov. 1 found Turek and Hinson 'effectively tied' at 48% and 47%, respectively. Of the seven battleground states The Times polled — Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa — the Senate race in the Hawkeye state had the smallest margin.

The Times' latest survey of 705 likely voters in Iowa also found 46% strongly disapprove of the way President Donald Trump is handling his job. Election Day is tomorrow, but 20% of nearly 2.2 million registered voters in Iowa have cast an early ballot, with Democrats accounting for 47% and Republicans making up 34%, per NBC News citing data from TargetSmart.

With one day until Election Day, both candidates are delivering their final messages. 'For nearly 15 months, we have traveled to all 99 counties, meeting Iowans and hearing what they're facing. Everywhere I go, I hear the same thing: Iowans are hurting,' Turek said on X on Monday. 'Tomorrow, we have a generational chance to change this state and fix this country.'

The Democratic Party has not won a Senate election in Iowa since 2008.

Meanwhile, Hinson pointed to Iowans' sentiment of watching the American Dream slip out of reach. 'Families are working hard and doing everything right, but their paychecks aren't going as far as they should,' she said on X. 'If there's a good idea that will lower costs and make life better for Iowa families, I'll work with anyone to get it done.'

Kalshi traders forecast Turek’s margin of victory to be 0.6 points.

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