Makerfield by-election odds put Burnham on track to challenge Starmer

Voters in a small area between Liverpool and Manchester called Makerfield will head to the polls Thursday for a vote that will have a ripple effect not only across the country but internationally as well. On May 14, Josh Simons resigned from his Makerfield MP post to clear the way for Andy Burnham to return to British politics' biggest stage. Makerfield, the constituency covering parts of Wigan and surrounding towns, is widely considered a Labour Party stronghold.

Andy Burnham is no stranger to the British political stage. As a journeyman Labour politician, his decision to run for mayor of Greater Manchester in 2016 was a shock to the British political scene. However, Burnham has spent the last decade using his platform to bolster his brand, all while keeping the baggage of the national political scene at arm's length.

On the other hand, Robert Kenyon, a self-employed plumber, is very much a political outsider. Kenyon was born and raised within the constituency, an angle that the Reform Party has leaned into over the course of the campaign. Over the past month, Kenyon's old social media presence, predating his political career, has become a point of contention around his viability as a candidate. Kenyon's since-deleted social media accounts revealed a pattern of far-right engagement and extremism, including peddling conspiracy theories and a string of misogynistic and homophobic posts.

Burnham is currently favored to win his Thursday showdown at 90%.

Burnham's political ambition reaches far beyond just the seat in Parliament he can secure on Thursday. The past few months have been rather disastrous for the UK's Labour Party. Current Prime Minister Keir Starmer has faced backlash from across the country on a plethora of issues, including appointing an Epstein-linked associate as ambassador to the US and policy disarray that has been criticized by many, including a former prime minister. Over 90 Labour members of Parliament have called on Starmer to resign, and Andy Burnham, the candidate with the most traction to replace him, is not even a member of Parliament yet.

Despite the resounding success of the Reform Party in recent local elections, the Labour Party still controls Parliament soundly and, therefore, holds the keys to 10 Downing Street. Should Burnham win on Thursday, his path to the premiership is just beginning. To challenge Starmer, Burnham would need 20% of fellow Labour MPs to nominate him, triggering a formal leadership contest. From there, many questions remain: would Starmer stay and fight? Would Starmer resign and Labour rally around Burnham without contest? Would another Labour MP enter the race?

Thursday's election could be the first domino to fall in Burnham's push to the premiership, and the market gives him an 83% chance of being the next person to move into 10 Downing Street.

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