Voters in Michigan will head to the polls on Tuesday to decide on a plethora of primary candidates for the general election in the Midwest swing state. Senator Gary Peters, who has held the seat since his election in 2014, will be retiring, opening the door for a fresh Democratic face representing Michigan in the Senate. Michigan has not had a Republican senator in over 20 years.
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Democratic Senate primary
For much of the spring, Michigan state Senator Mallory McMorrow was the frontrunner to earn the Democratic nomination. However, as the campaign progressed, McMorrow sat in an awkward position between U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, a traditional Democrat, and progressive outsider Abdul El-Sayed. On July 5, McMorrow suspended her campaign, leaving Stevens and El-Sayed in a head-to-head competition.
Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County health director, is endorsed by Senator Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Much of his campaign has focused on Medicare for All and keeping corporate money out of politics, often taking shots at the fact that Stevens has been backed by tens of millions of dollars in outside spending from groups affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). El-Sayed has also been criticized for campaigning with controversial left-wing streamer Hasan Piker. Haley Stevens, on the other hand, is endorsed by more traditional Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi and Gary Peters, the current incumbent. Stevens' campaign has focused on her track record of success in Congress and the Obama administration. As of Monday, Abdul El-Sayed heads into Tuesday's primary with a 97% chance of securing the nomination.
Republican gubernatorial primary
On the GOP side of the ballot, Republicans statewide will select their nominee for the first gubernatorial election not featuring current Governor Gretchen Whitmer in eight years. John James, who narrowly lost to Gary Peters in the 2020 Michigan Senate election, currently represents Michigan's 10th Congressional district. Widely considered the frontrunner since entering the race, James has been opposed by a slew of candidates including state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt and former Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox, who have both dropped out of the race in recent weeks. Now, James' last standing opponent is Michigan businessman Perry Johnson, who has poured millions of dollars of his own money into his bid against James. James, who has earned the endorsement of President Trump, leads Johnson with a 95% chance of winning the nomination on Tuesday.
Michigan's 7th Congressional district
Michigan's 7th Congressional district is slotted to be one of the most competitive House races come November. Republican incumbent Tom Barrett has already locked up his spot in the November race by virtue of running unopposed. The district was narrowly won by President Trump in 2024 and represents a key district for the Democratic push to retake the House. William Lawrence, progressive co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, has earned the backing of Bernie Sanders and Abdul El-Sayed, propelling him to the top of the market. Lawrence has a 90% chance of becoming the nominee. Also in the race are Bridget Brink, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine during the Biden administration, and Matt Maasdam, a former Navy SEAL. Brink and Maasdam have a 7% and 3% chance, respectively.
Michigan's 13th Congressional district
Michigan's 13th Congressional district also features another progressive angling for a spot on the November ballot by potentially toppling incumbent Representative Shri Thanedar. Thanedar has represented the predominantly Black district since his election in 2022. He is being challenged by state Representative Donavan McKinney. Similar to El-Sayed and Lawrence, McKinney has the backing of many congressional progressives, including Bernie Sanders. Notably, McKinney has the support of Representative Rashida Tlaib, who represents the neighboring 12th Congressional district. McKinney has an 85% chance of winning Tuesday's primary.
Kalshi's American Power Index shifts
In the last week, KPOW, Kalshi's American Power Index, has moved 0.7 points towards the Democrats. While KPOW still leans towards the GOP, the Democrats' odds of retaking the Senate have moved to their highest point since May. Democrats have a 47% chance of winning the Senate and an 84% chance of winning the House.
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