Voters are heading to the polls Tuesday in races across the country that will decide the balance of power in Congress.
Kalshi traders expect the Republican Party to lose both the House and the Senate after Election Day as prediction market-implied odds of a Democratic sweep climbed in the past week from 62.4% to an all-time high of 75.6% on Election Day, before settling at 73% as of 4:50 p.m. ET.
The second-most-likely outcome, at 22%, is Democrats winning the House and Republicans keeping the Senate. Meanwhile, the odds of Republicans successfully defending their position and retaining both chambers of Congress sits at 6.7%.
In Kalshi’s separate event contract focused on which party controls the House, Democrats have a 93.6% chance of winning and for the market on which party will secure the Senate, Democrats have a 74% probability.
“If Republicans win, Trump could spend another two years facing little congressional resistance and pushing through major policy packages,” CNBC reported on Tuesday. “If Democrats win one or both chambers, the president’s remaining legislative priorities would be severely kneecapped, and even the basic functions of government could become gridlocked.”
The Senate races in Michigan, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Maine, and Ohio are key battleground states that could decide which party controls Congress. Democrats are leading in prediction market-implied odds against their Republican opponents in six of those seven states. In the Iowa Senate contest, Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are tied at 50%, data from Kalshi’s event contract shows.
ABC News said on Tuesday of the Senate races, “Democrats need to win four additional seats to shift the balance of power, while Republicans can afford to lose up to three seats and keep the majority, with the tie-breaking vote of Vice President JD Vance.”
Polls begin closing at 6 p.m. Eastern Tuesday and finish at 1 a.m. Wednesday in Alaska, per The New York Times.
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders currently price:
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