Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown, who served three terms in the Senate, saw his prediction market-implied odds rise to 73%, giving him his largest lead so far.
Republican incumbent Jon Husted’s chance of victory fell to a new low at 27% on Election Day, from 32.5% a week ago, data from Kalshi’s event contract shows.
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What the polls say
The final New York Times/Siena poll found Brown ahead of Husted, 49% to 44% in the contest that has drawn more than $500 million in total aired ad spending and future reservations, making it one of the most expensive non-presidential races in history.
The same poll of 717 likely voters also found that in Ohio where 82% of Republicans approve of President Donald Trump, the share who strongly approve of the president has dropped 12 percentage points since June, to 51%.
AtlasIntel’s poll of 1,801 likely voters, conducted between Oct. 28 and Nov. 1, showed Brown with a 7.5 percentage point lead, 51.4% to 43.9%, outside the survey’s margin of error of 2.2 points.
However, Husted had a three percentage point advantage in a third poll of 930 likely voters, conducted by Emerson College between Oct. 31 and Nov. 1.
Increasing visibility
Trump, who endorsed Husted, has made multiple remarks about the Republican candidate's body, namely his rear end, which have increased Husted's visibility among voters.
“Here is the thing about Mr. Trump’s comments about Mr. Husted’s rear: Online and across Ohio, they have more people talking about the senator than anyone has in the two years since he was appointed to the Senate to succeed Vice President JD Vance,” The New York Times reported on Monday.
“He [Trump] took a candidate who had toiled in relative anonymity and gave him an identity that stuck,” continued the Times. Trump’s comments on Husted, who played football at the University of Dayton about 40 years ago, appeared to have mixed results, the Times said. Donald Goodenow, 66, said he intends to vote for the Republican nominee because “by the looks of most of the Democratic Party, they’re out to lunch,” The Times added.
Ohio polling locations close at 7:30 p.m. ET today. “In recent general elections, 95 percent of votes were reported by midnight Eastern time,” The New York Times reported. “Officials expect nearly all unofficial votes to be counted before they leave for the night, because absentee ballots are now due on Election Day instead of four days later (if postmarked).”
Ohio governor’s race
Ohioans are also choosing a successor to Mike DeWine as state governor. Democrat Amy Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health during the COVID-19 pandemic, leads Republican nominee Vivek Ramaswamy 80% to 20%, per Kalshi's Ohio Governor winner market.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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