The battle for the Senate has reached Election Day, and things are close between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson on Kalshi.
The Iowa Senate winner market shows Turek and Hinson tied at 50% each.
Turek led Hinson early Tuesday after his price rose eight percentage points to a new high of 52%. Now that lead is gone, and both candidates are on even footing as voters head to the polls.
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The final stretch
Both candidates stumped across the state in the final stretch of their campaigns.
CBS News reported that Turek appeared with former Sen. Tom Harkin in Le Mars, Iowa, when the Iowa Senate winner's Kalshi market caught his eye. Turek uttered “Oh my God” when he saw his price at 52% over Hinson’s 48%.
“This may very well be the closest election on the entire U.S. Senate map,” Turek said.
He also called the Iowa Senate race an opportunity for a “generational change” in Congress and called himself a “common-sense prairie populist.”
Turek said he could work with Republicans, including President Donald Trump, on issues where they share common ground.
“How will I work with him? In the exact same way that I’ve done in the Iowa legislature,” Turek said. “I don’t believe that any party has a monopoly on good ideas. And I’ve said openly that I agree with President Trump that we should have no tax on tips, overtime, Social Security, and driving private equity out of housing, for example.”
The Republican National Committee is pouring resources into Hinson’s campaign as the race remains close.
The Des Moines Register reported that Trump campaigned for Republican candidates, including Hinson, at rallies in Sioux City and Dubuque during the final weeks of the election.
The RNC and Hinson’s campaign have also spent $5 million on ads in this race “in the wake of a U.S. Supreme Court decision this summer striking down limits on political parties coordinating directly with candidates.”
This is the first time the RNC has organized a coordinated ad buy with a candidate.
The RNC has a lot of money and time invested in the Iowa Senate race. The state went for Trump in the 2024 presidential election, and Iowa is a key state Republicans need to win to retain control of the Senate.
“From the largest ever ground game to a first-of-its-kind coordinated TV ad buy, the RNC has left it all on the field in Iowa,” RNC Chair Joe Gruters said in a statement.
Iowa Governor's race
Kalshi traders strongly favor Democrat Rob Sand in Iowa's gubernatorial race heading into Election Day.
The Iowa Governor winner market shows Democrat Rob Sand with a wide lead at 87%, followed by Republican Zach Lahn at 13%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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