The VMAs are tonight, and once again Taylor Swift is expected to come out on top. Kalshi traders are predicting at 72% that her video for “The Fate of Ophelia” will win the Video of the Year award.
Ariana Grande and Madonna are also in the race, with Grande’s “hate that i made you love me” sitting at 10% and Madge’s “Confessions II — The Film” at 6%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with MTV or the VMAs.
A battle of the pop stars
While traders don’t think it’s a close race, the Video of the Year category, and the VMAs at large, is a battle of the pop stars. While musicians like Bruno Mars, Sabrina Carpenter, and GENER8ION are also nominated in the top category, Kalshi traders believe the race will be between Taylor Swift, Ariana Grande, and Madonna.
Taylor Swift, one of the most prolific and award-winning artists of all time, is entering this competition fresh off of releasing four bonus tracks to her 2025 album The Life of a Showgirl. Though the new music was poorly received by critics, that likely isn’t enough to throw her off of her VMAs game, especially because she is debuting a new video for her song “Patient Zero” at the VMAs. The music video will feature Dakota Johnson and Colin Farrell in addition to Swift herself.
Ariana Grande has kept a pretty low profile since her latest album Petal was released and the titular track’s music video resurfaced concerns about her physical health. In the aftermath of that, Grande announced that she would be “taking a step back” from public life and she withdrew from her scheduled appearance in the West End revival of Stephen Sondheim’s Sunday in the Park with George.
Other categories
Grande’s song is competing in many other categories, including Best Cinematography, Best Visual Effects, and Song of the Summer. Kalshi traders have Grande and Swift neck and neck for the Cinematography award, with Grande at 41% and Swift at 42%. Grande leads the Visual Effects market at 50% over PinkPantheress, but is in a distant third at 27% for the Song of the Summer category market behind Ella Langley and Taylor Swift.
Meanwhile, the “Queen of Pop” Madonna released her 15th studio album Confessions II to critical acclaim, and leads the pack in terms of nominations at the VMAs. In addition to competing for Video of the Year, her album is also nominated for Best Album at the VMAs, where she is in a much tighter race with Taylor Swift. In the Best Album Kalshi market, Confessions II is currently trailing at 33% while The Life of a Showgirl has the slight edge at 39%.
Madonna is also up for Artist of the Year, where she and Swift are currently tied at 52% in the Kalshi market.
The takeaway:
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