Good afternoon, traders.
The 2026 MTV VMAs are back, and this year’s ceremony could be one to remember.
Taylor Swift, the biggest pop star in the world, is nominated across nearly every major category. But she is not even the most-nominated artist of the night. That distinction belongs to Madonna, one of the biggest pop stars of all time.
This year’s VMAs could become a contest between two generations of pop royalty, and Kalshi’s markets may offer a clue as to who will walk away with the most awards.
Let’s get into it.
But before we get into that, let’s see what markets are making headlines.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with MTV or the VMAs.
Best Alternative: What Happened to Rock?
It may be hard to believe for many of our parents, but rock and roll’s popularity is on a clear downward spiral. After 37 years, the MTV VMAs have officially removed the standalone rock category. That doesn’t mean the musicians are excluded from the awards; instead, they are now competing in the alternative category. That means The Rolling Stones would literally be competing against Olivia Rodrigo. Let that sink in.
Luckily for all of our sanity, even though the Stones did recently release an album, they are not in the running. Olivia, on the other hand, is, and she is currently dominating in our markets. Her song The Cure is currently leading with a 74% chance of winning; SOMBR and Twenty One Pilots are now tied for second, each priced at 10%, with Homewrecker and Drag Path neck and neck. It is still clearly looking like it will be Olivia's win, but on the off chance Kalshi traders are wrong, second place is now a true toss-up.
Best Dance
After a seven-year hiatus from the VMAs, the Best Dance category is finally back, and it is looking interesting. The two hot contenders are Madonna, nominated for her film Confessions II, and PinkPantheress, nominated for her Stateside (feat. Zara Larsson) music video. To Kalshi traders, Madonna currently holds the edge, leading PinkPantheress 52% to 46%.
This is a unique opportunity for PinkPantheress. Madonna is an industry legend who helped make dance-pop a dominant feature in mainstream music. There is little doubt that she has influenced hundreds of musicians, and potentially her current competitor. Her legendary status, along with the novelty of her being back, could be giving her a leg up. Additionally, she will be opening the ceremony with her first VMA performance in 23 years.
Best New Artist
In the Best New Artist category, the contest remains a nail-biter between CORTIS and Sienna Spiro. The two hail from completely different genres, CORTIS being a K-pop band and Sienna Spiro a UK singer-songwriter. Of all the awards this year, this one is looking particularly close. The two had been roughly hovering around the 45% mark, and Sienna Spiro has now pulled ahead, with traders giving her a 51% chance of winning, to CORTIS's 39%.
Her lead may not hold, though. Unlike the other categories in the award ceremony, voting for Best New Artist remains open to fans during the ceremony. Sienna Spiro is already ahead in the markets, and she is also currently slotted to perform during the show, a rare double advantage. If she crushes her performance, she could pull in a flood of votes live. CORTIS still has a path back, but it is looking like this award will boil down to the fans. The artist whose fans show up in larger numbers to vote is likely to take home the award.
Song of the Year
After four years, the K-pop mega group BTS is back, and the market is giving them a huge lead in securing Song of the Year. They are nominated for their song SWIM and are currently facing off against Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter, who are nominated for their song Bring Your Love. For those who are not familiar with BTS, they are big in the US, but they are absolutely massive overseas. Their hiatus over the past four years was because all members had to complete South Korea's mandatory military service. Lucky for their fans, they have completed service and are back in full force.
What is really important to know for this award vote is how diehard the BTS fan base is. Their loyalty could give Swifties a run for their money, and it is likely the reason our markets are giving them a sweeping lead at 50%. The thing is, many people are questioning whether the hiatus has affected fan loyalty. Will their fans turn out in huge numbers as they have in the past, or have they moved on to newer K-pop groups? Madonna and Sabrina have to hope for the latter.
Artist of The Year & Video of the Year
For this final section in the newsletter, we have decided to combine the two awards, Video of the Year and Artist of the Year, into one section. If you are curious why, just compare the two graphs above. Both awards are essentially a competition between Taylor Swift and Ariana Grande. It is no real surprise; if you had looked up pop star in the dictionary, you would probably see a picture of one of the two.
Unfortunately for Ariana, though, it is looking like Taylor Swift has a huge advantage in both award categories. For Artist of the Year, Kalshi markets have her chance of winning 17 points higher than Ariana’s, 52% to 35%. For Video of the Year, the numbers are even more staggering; Taylor has a 39-point lead, 67% to 28%. These big leads really just boil down to one thing: Swifties. Both of these awards are voted for by fans, and Taylor's fan base is likely the biggest and most loyal fan group in the world. She has cultivated an almost cult-like following, and our market reflects that. When you add on the massive success of her latest album The Life of a Showgirl, it is easy to see why the market is swinging that way. It is not a done deal, though; Ariana definitely still has a shot at winning one of these awards. We will have to wait until Sunday to see if she can make the cut.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with MTV or the VMAs.
