Markets show Vrabel as strong favorite for Coach of the Year

With another regular season of pro football having come and gone, there are still many questions left unanswered. Ahead of the playoffs, one of the most prevalent storylines pertains to the current Coach of the Year race, which has seen significant movement over the past few days on Kalshi.

Traders currently price New England head coach Mike Vrabel as the frontrunner to win the upcoming Coach of the Year award. Vrabel is presently priced at 64¢. For reference, Minnesota's Kevin O’Connell was the winner in 2024 after coaching his team to 14 wins. 

Next in line is Seattle’s Mike Macdonald (28%) followed by Jacksonville’s Liam Coen (7%).

^{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Mike Vrabel has orchestrated a monumental turnaround for New England (14-3) in his first year at the helm. Of course, the fact that he was once a star player for this franchise makes it all the more sweet.

New England is fresh off winning its first division title since Tom Brady was playing in Foxborough (2019). Vrabel and company did so by operating with a stout defense and efficient offense. 

After 18 weeks, New England has surrendered only 18.8 PPG. Meanwhile, the offense has churned out 379.4 total YPG. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye is the MVP frontrunner at Kalshi, and his league-best 77.2 QBR is exemplary.

Vrabel has done a brilliant job of implementing quality schemes and a winning culture. Keep in mind, New England has already won nine more games than last year. That sort of improvement does not go unnoticed in pro football.

The former outside-linebacker Vrabel has garnered respect within Kalshi’s Coach of the Year market for some time now, trading above 20¢ since October 13 (following a 5-2 start).

Seattle (14-3) has been one of the most well-rounded units in all of football this year. Naturally, head coach Mike Macdonald has been a vital proponent of that.

When it comes to scoring, Macdonald’s bunch from the Pacific Northwest is ranked third on offense (28.4 PPG) and first on defense (17.2 PPG). They are physical in all facets of the game, which brings back fond memories of Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” era.

Speaking of LOB, this current group is also powered by an athletic and aggressive defensive backfield. Entering the postseason, Seattle has intercepted 18 passes—second most in the conference. 10 different players have contributed to that figure. Meanwhile, Seattle defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence has recovered two fumbles for touchdowns.

Macdonald rose to his Coach of the Year market peak of 27% on December 19 after defeating Los Angeles at home, but as of now, he is tagged with a 15% chance.

It’s also worth noting that Seattle is viewed by Kalshi’s traders as the current favorite, with a 21% chance to win this year’s championship.

Jacksonville (13-4) is in the midst of a historic turnaround, and head coach Liam Coen certainly deserves his flowers. The offense in Duval County scored 27.7 PPG in 2025, which is up considerably from last year’s clip of 18.8 PPG.

Most notably, Coen has extracted the top abilities out of fifth-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Behind a 29-12 TD-INT ratio, Lawrence enjoyed his best NFL season to date. This group approaches the playoffs with incredible momentum—they produced 30 or more points in six of 10 games down the stretch.

Coen peaked in the “Coach of the Year” market back on December 14 with a trading price of 23¢. Incidentally, that followed Jacksonville’s 48-20 beatdown of New York. It has actually been a little surprising to see the first-year head coach fall since then, as Jacksonville just finished the regular season on an eight-game winning streak.

Although the criteria for 2025-26 Coach of the Year has officially ended, Coen can resonate a little stronger in some of the voters’ minds if his side takes down Buffalo this Sunday. In that same vein, Kalshi’s market for Buffalo-Jacksonville reflects a 50% chance at victory for both teams at this time.

Outside of Vrabel, Macdonald and Coen, all other individuals are trading under 10¢ to win the 2025-26 Coach of the Year.

Chicago’s Ben Johnson yielded a 33% probability here as recently as December 21. Three close games since then — one win and two losses — have caused the former Detroit offensive coordinator to dip.

San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan reached as high as 42¢ here on New Year’s Day, but after a lopsided loss to Macdonald and Seattle in Week 18, Shanahan’s winning probability has dropped to less than one percent.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

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