Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is no longer a member of the Trump administration’s cabinet. But even before her exit was announced, prices in several Kalshi markets had already pointed toward her departure following Wednesday’s rocky appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee.
Several news outlets cited sources within President Trump’s administration saying Noem’s position was in jeopardy following her appearance before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday.
NBC News cited “lawmakers and people familiar with the discussions” who said President Trump expressed frustration with Noem’s testimony and “has made clear in those conversations that he is considering replacing her.”
Earlier today, as reports continued to emerge, the probability of her leaving the DHS post surged to 99%.
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The market for which cabinet member will leave President Donald Trump’s cabinet next also moved sharply in Noem’s direction, reaching 99%.
Who is next?
In the wake of Noem’s departure, other officials saw their exit odds move as well. FBI Director Kash Patel and Attorney General Pam Bondi both rose to 56% on the market tracking which cabinet member will leave President Trump’s administration this year.
What caused these sudden spikes?
Noem’s testimony
PBS NewsHour recapped several moments from Noem’s combative testimony before the Senate committee. Members of the committee pressed Noem to “explain, retract, or apologize” for her responses to the recent shooting deaths in Minnesota.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar urged Noem to apologize for characterizing Good and Pretti as domestic terrorists, but Noem denied making that claim. Sen. Dick Durbin also gave Noem a chance to retract the statement.
Instead, Noem blamed ICE agents for providing her with false information, saying both incidents were “a chaotic scene.”
Republicans unhappy
Democratic committee members were not the only lawmakers criticizing Noem’s performance. Republican Sen. John Kennedy read a quote from an Axios story in which Noem blamed Homeland Security adviser Stephen Miller for characterizing Pretti as a domestic terrorist.
Noem told Axios, “Everything I’ve done, I’ve done at the direction of the president and Stephen.” Kennedy struggled to get Noem to acknowledge on the record that she made the statement.
Sen. Thom Tillis delivered one of the sharpest Republican criticisms, calling Noem’s tenure as DHS secretary a “disaster” and asking her, “Why can’t we just say we made a mistake?”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets predicted:
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