Pro football’s postseason is now in full swing, and the big game is almost here. But individual player awards, like Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY), are also just around the corner.
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Since we’re late in the season, voting for these awards is already completed. Currently, Kalshi traders price an 84% chance that Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be named as the 2025-26 AP Offensive Player of the Year. Or click here to read about our Defensive Player of the Year market.
Behind Smith-Njigba in the Offensive Player of the Year race are a couple of divisional foes: Los Angeles receiver Puka Nacua and San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey.
Let’s take a close look at all three contenders.
As mentioned above, Kalshi’s traders have Jaxon Smith-Njigba priced at 84¢, making him an overwhelming favorite.
Smith-Njigba’s top position is warranted after carving up opposing defenses in 2025. JSN hauled in 119 catches for a league-best 1,793 receiving yards (15.1 YPR). From there, he found the end zone on 10 occasions.
Smith-Njigba set career highs in all aforementioned categories. Additionally, he did well to move the chains, picking up 79 first downs in 17 games. He also hauled in 73% of his targets from Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold.
Since the market peaked at 93.5% on January 7, Smith-Njigba has fallen slightly over the past week. That’s a bit peculiar, especially considering that only the regular season, which concluded on January 3 for Seattle, is considered.
Despite his individual prowess, Smith-Njigba still has his eyes on the ultimate prize. Seattle is one of only four remaining teams vying for a shot at the big game. Presently, Seattle is the favorite to win it all this season, with a 40% probability on Kalshi.
LA wideout Puka Nacua is viewed as the second-most likely winner for the Offensive Player of the Year Award. Nacua and Smith-Njigba essentially turned this market into a two-horse race as the season waned.
Nacua is unquestionably one of the best players in football. In 2025, he tallied a league-high 129 receptions, 1,715 yards and 10 touchdowns. The BYU alum utilizes speed, strength and technique, and as such, is seemingly always open.
Nacua thrives at getting to his spot on the field. With that, Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford (and MVP frontrunner) almost never misses him. Nacua brought down 77.7% of all targets, which is quite prolific with a workload of his size.
Up until October 14, Kalshi’s traders had Nacua ahead of Smith-Njigba. However, he has steadily trailed JSN since then, even at his peak pricing of 43¢. Nacua’s high mark occurred on December 19, which followed his 225-yard performance against — you guessed it — Seattle. Fast-forward, and Nacua is listed with just a 12% winning likelihood.
Although this weekend’s playoff showdown at Lumen Field will have no effect on the voting, it will be thrilling to see Nacua and Smith-Njigba attempt to one-up each other.
San Francisco’s do-it-all tailback Christian McCaffrey is hoping to win his second Offensive Player of the Year Award of the past three seasons, but Kalshi traders give McCaffrey only a three-percent chance to do so. After CMC, no other player in the market is trading above one cent.
McCaffrey was extremely active in 2025. When combining his 311 rush attempts with his 102 catches, his 413 touches led the league. In that sample size, McCaffrey produced 2,126 all-purpose yards to go with 17 touchdowns (10 rushing, seven receiving). Miraculously, he did not lose a single fumble this past year.
As a first-round draft pick out of Stanford, McCaffrey is perhaps the most dynamic offensive player in the league. While CMC would love to extend the two-year streak of running backs winning the award, it will likely go to one of the aforementioned wideouts.
The takeaway:
Seattle’s Smith-Njigba is the clear favorite. The Ohio State alum dazzled wire-to-wire in 2025, and his nine games with 100+ receiving yards underscore that. Smith-Njigba also set the franchise record for most receiving yards in a single season.
Genuinely, Los Angeles’ Nacua is equally deserving of recognition. He just might be the toughest one-on-one assignment in the league, as he creates space like no other receiver. Interestingly, JSN averaged 105.5 receiving YPG, while Nacua posted 107.2 YPG receiving.
Other than Smith-Njigba and Nacua, McCaffrey is the only other individual trading above one cent within Kalshi’s OPOY market. McCaffrey was incredibly productive in 2025, but his excessive usage rate works against him in this instance.
The Offensive Player of the Year (and other awards) will be announced on Thursday, February 5 at the Palace of Fine Arts in San Francisco.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
2025-26 AP Offensive Player of the Year:
Pro football champion:
(Click here to trade on this Sunday’s conference championship games)
Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
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