OpenAI, the maker of the popular AI platform ChatGPT, is reportedly planning to “confidentially file” its plans to go public, and traders are trying to predict when a public announcement will be made.
The market for when OpenAI will officially announce its IPO plans shows traders believe it will most likely happen in late summer or fall, and are pricing chances of an announcement before November at 81%. Meanwhile, odds of an announcement before October are priced at 60%, and before September is at 38%.
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Traders are also confident that OpenAI’s IPO announcement will happen sometime this year. Kalshi’s 2026 IPO announcement market prices the chances for OpenAI at 88%.
Markets also forecast that OpenAI will launch its IPO before its rival Anthropic. The market for whether OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO first shows a price of 84% for OpenAI.
OpenAI plans to go public
The reason traders likely turned bullish on OpenAI’s public offering plans was a new report by CNBC citing an insider source who claims the company will “file a draft of its IPO prospectus as soon as Friday.”
OpenAI has already been preparing to launch its IPO “as soon as the fourth quarter of this year, as CNBC previously reported.”
Elon Musk’s lawsuit
The news comes just days after Elon Musk’s lawsuit against the company was dismissed.
NBC News reported Musk’s federal lawsuit against OpenAI was thrown out by a jury because “Musk waited too long to bring his lawsuit against OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and others.”
Musk claims that Microsoft “aided and abetted Altman and [OpenAI co-founder Greg] Brockman in allegedly breaching their duty to OpenAI.” The jury unanimously threw out the case after just two hours of deliberation.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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