With Oscar nominations set to be announced Thursday, trading is heating up across Kalshi’s Oscar nomination markets.
Best Picture Nominations
The Best Picture nominee market has been volatile ahead of Thursday’s announcement. As of Wednesday afternoon, traders have pegged the period drama Train Dreams starring Joel Egerton as the film most likely to pick up a nomination for Best Picture at 80%. The drama was also nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards.
The anti-authoritarian thriller It Was Just An Accident is the second most likely to be nominated at 62%, followed by F1: The Movie starring Brad Pitt, which is at 28%.
Best Actor and Best Actress
The markets for Best Actor and Best Actress have been steady, but may still have some surprises in store.
Actor Wagner Moura leads the market for Best Actor Oscar nominations at 88% for his performance in the Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent. Moura was also a nominee for Best Actor at this year’s Critics Choice Awards, and the winner of this year’s Golden Globe for Best Male Performance in a Drama.
Ethan Hawke is priced as the second most likely to receive a Best Actor nomination for his performance in the Blumhouse horror hit, The Black Phone 2, with a 73% chance.
Jesse Plemons is priced as the third most likely for his role in the dark sci-fi crime thriller Bugonia at 38%.
Traders in the market for the Best Actress Oscar nominations have priced Chase Infiniti as the favorite for her role in director Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another at 73%. She also received nominations at the Golden Globe Awards and Critics Choice Awards in the same category.
Kate Hudson is priced at 40% for her role in Song Sung Blue, followed by Amanda Seyfried for her role in the historic drama The Testament of Ann Lee at 17%.
Best Director
The Best Director Oscar nomination market has Marty Supreme director Josh Safdie priced as the clear favorite at 72%. Safdie was also nominated for Best Director at the Critics Choice Awards, but lost to director Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another.
Guillermo del Toro is priced at 40% for his Netflix film adaptation of Frankenstein, and It Was Just An Accident director Jafar Panahi is priced at 37%.
The nominations for the 98th annual Academy Awards will be announced at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 22. The announcement will be simulcast on ABC’s Good Morning America and ABC News Live as well as on the streaming services Disney+ and Hulu.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast: