The 78th annual Emmy Awards take place Monday, Sept. 14, and Kalshi traders expect Widow’s Bay to be one of the night's biggest winners.
The market for Outstanding Comedy Series shows an 82% chance that Widow’s Bay will win, followed by Hacks at 18% and Shrinking at 1%.
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A separate market gives Widow’s Bay an 84% chance of winning the most Emmy awards, followed by HBO's The Pitt at 7% and Apple TV's Pluribus at 1%.
Widow’s Bay
The Apple TV series became one of the year's most critically acclaimed new comedies.
The series stars Matthew Rhys as the widowed mayor of the titular town off the New England coast. He is an ambitious leader who wants to turn the town into another vacation destination. His plans face resistance from residents who oppose rapid changes to their community and believe the island is haunted by a 300-year-old curse.
The island's history includes plagues, typhoons, killer clowns, and other seemingly supernatural events. None of this deters the mayor from pursuing his plans to turn the island into a tourist destination.
The mayor finally gets his wish when a visiting travel writer publishes a glowing review of Widow’s Bay. The review attracts a wave of new tourists, and despite the warnings from locals like a grizzled sea captain played by Stephen Root, the mayor welcomes them with open arms.
What do the critics say?
Widow’s Bay has emerged as one of the most acclaimed shows of the current Emmy season.
NPR’s Fresh Air critic John Powers described Widow’s Bay as a lighter take on Twin Peaks, which he called “the benchmark for TV comedy-horror.”
“Where Lynch explored our scariest psychic murk, [show creator Katie] Dippold taps into our pop culture past,” Powers wrote. “We keep bumping into images and ideas that reference movies like Jaws, Halloween, The Fog and The Wicker Man among others, not to mention the work of Stephen King, whose titles appear prominently in the bookmobile Patricia drives around town.”
Variety’s Alison Herman named the show's first season a “Critic's Pick” and praised the series for finding its own identity within the well-worn horror-comedy genre. Herman also praised the show's deadpan approach to horror-comedy.
“One resident wakes up to a hooded stranger preparing to stab her and silently points them to her sleeping husband rather than scream,” Herman wrote. “Another shuts a door on an old-timer in the middle of his menacing monologue about an apocalyptic storm. Such subtle tweaks in rhythm and resolution are more subtle, and more rewarding, than a straightforward joke-and-punchline setup.”
The critical acclaim has carried into the Emmy race, where Widow’s Bay enters Monday's ceremony leading both the Outstanding Comedy Series market at 82% and the market for the most overall wins at 84%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Widow’s Bay/Apple TV
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