UPDATE (8:36 PM ET): Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has won the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards. The supernatural thriller entered the ceremony as the clear favorite on Kalshi, where traders priced its chances of winning at 95%. The film ultimately beat out competitors including Marty Supreme and Sentimental Value to take home the Oscar. The win caps a strong awards-season run for Sinners, which had been widely praised by critics for Coogler’s layered, allegorical script and its blend of genre storytelling with social commentary.
If you don’t know which flick to pick on your Oscar ballot for Best Original Screenplay, Kalshi traders have your back. They currently price director Ryan Coogler’s Sinners as a heavy favorite to take home the award at tonight’s Academy Awards.
The supernatural thriller is priced far ahead of its competitors at 95%. Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme is next in line at 2%, followed by Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value at 2%.
The race for Best Original Screenplay
The space between these three contenders for the Best Original Screenplay Academy Award wasn’t always so wide.
Sinners’ price on the market didn’t start to separate from the pack until mid-December of last year, a full month before the Oscar nominations were announced. Marty Supreme briefly led in the rankings at 34.7% on Dec. 6 before Sinners took back the lead the next day.
What the critics are saying
Sinners was one of 2025’s most acclaimed movies, earning a 97% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
The Los Angeles Times’ Sergio Burstein wrote the fourth collaboration between Coogler and the film’s star Michael B. Jordan “is a further and compelling example of the strength of an artistic alliance that continues to yield superlative results.” He also writes that Sinners “continues to offer distinctive and relevant results in terms of the proper representation of the African American community.”
Time Magazine’s Stephanie Zacharek called Sinners “fun and rowdy and suitably lurid.” She also praised Coogler’s allegorical script for the way he “folds his ideas into the story subtly, rather than spelling them out Bible-pamphlet style.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
Meanwhile, the Best Adapted Screenplay market also has a definitive leader on its charts. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is the clear favorite with a price of 96%. Chloé Zhao and Maggie O'Farrell’s Hamnet trails far behind at 4%, followed by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar’s Train Dreams at 1%.
The 98th annual Academy Awards hosted by Conan O’Brien airs at 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT on ABC. The Oscars will also stream on Hulu, YouTube TV, AT&T TV, and Fubo.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict
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