Good afternoon, traders.
If you don’t live under a rock, you will have noticed that things have gotten a bit crazy in the world, and everyone on your Twitter feed is now an expert in geopolitics. Instead of also pretending to be experts on stuff we don’t know anything about, we’re gonna focus this newsletter on a different topic that people totally actually care about: The Oscars.
Sometimes, I think to myself, “I wish there was an event where people richer than me who have private security at their mansions get up on stage and tell me how it’s my fault the country is failing,” and then I remember there’s the Oscars.
(The only Hollywood award show speech actually worth watching is Ricky Gervais’s opening monologue at the 2020 Golden Globes.)
But before we get into that, let’s see what markets are making headlines.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below.
What’s in the news?
Jim Cramer says “now is the time to sell,” sending strong signals that the stock market has officially bottomed out.
Despite falling nearly $100 million short of the break-even point, One Battle After Another is predicted to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Apparently, losing $100 million and still being considered a winner isn’t just something AI startups can do.
Maybe the cast can each sell their Oscars for $40 each on eBay and pool the money to recoup some of the $100 million loss.
OpenAI and Anthropic have roughly 50-50 odds of an IPO this year. “Winning a contract from the US government makes you about as flush with cash as an IPO does,” said one top financial analyst.
Lights, Camera, Action
The Oscars are shaping up to be a bit different this year. From the 1970s to 2010s, the Oscars were the supreme movie culture awards, as movies were the dominant entertainment medium. But like everything good in life, private equity firms and pretentious snobs from Los Angeles came along to ruin it.
We had our team of Quants at Kalshi Research create this graph.
In the 1990s and early 2000s, it was blockbuster hits like Titanic ($600M), Gladiator ($187M), and The Lord of the Rings ($380M) that often won Best Picture. But starting in 2008, winners generally became smaller films that only screened at obscure film festivals in Brooklyn and Aspen, like Nomadland ($3M) and CODA ($1M). Occasionally, a huge movie like Oppenheimer breaks through, but there has been a clear trend towards favoring niche movies.
Compounding this effect is the fact that you need 20 different streaming services to watch movies now, unless you want to go to a movie theater where you can’t pause the movie, and you do have to worry about getting hit by a firework someone sets off when the good guys win (just look at this clip below).
You might think that we’re being harsh on the Oscars and saying that nobody watches them. We aren’t. Millions of people watch the Oscars every year, and they even reached a 5-year high of 19.97 million viewers last year. What we are saying is that people don’t watch the Oscars because they care about who wins what award or what the best movie is.
People watch the Oscars because the actors are hot.
The only people who should actually care about who wins Best Actor are those trading on the outcome. To those only watching the show, what matters is getting an image of Michael B. Jordan and Timothée Chalamet side by side so they can put it into Grok Spicy Mode to have fun with it later.
Can’t wait for the tweets about who mogged who at the Oscars.
Regardless of who the hottest person at the Oscars is, the event sits at the intersection of politics, money, and competition, so there’s always a controversy. Not to mention the fact that celebrities (who’ve had good plastic surgery) are involved.
Sometimes, there are incidents like when ‘La La Land’ was announced as the Best Picture winner and the announcers had to interrupt the celebrating cast to correct their mistake; other times, it’s just political speeches.
This is like getting back an exam with an A+ at the top before the teacher realizes they gave you the wrong paper.
No matter if you plan on watching the full Oscars or just seeing the results as you doomscroll on Twitter the next morning, there are tons of prediction markets for the event with over $40M currently trading on the outcomes of the various awards.
Markets include:
Best Actress: Jesse Buckley (Hamnet) is leading with 95% odds
How many Oscars will Sinners win: the odds are tied 3 ways at 25% each
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) is leading with 70%
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan (Weapons) is leading with 49%
P.S. We thought it would make sense to compile a list of people who would be attending the Oscars. But because the list of attendees we compiled is pretty much identical to the Epstein list, we figured we’d just leave a link to that.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.