Turnover in the Trump administration has become a constant guessing game on Kalshi.
Earlier this week, traders seemed to think that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick would be the next member of the Trump administration to exit.
But after yesterday’s contentious congressional hearing, Attorney General Pam Bondi is now the most likely to exit, with odds at 20%.
Bondi exit odds
The attorney general is now at the center of multiple controversies, including a contentious hearing before the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday over the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files. As such, her odds of leaving the administration at any time this year are now at 55%.
Bondi avoided directly answering lawmakers’ questions about the release of the files and the lack of further prosecutions. The questioning even sparked shouting from members of the committee.
When Rep. Becca Balint questioned Bondi on her handling of the Epstein matter, Bondi accused Balint of being antisemitic for voting against a resolution condemning a phrase regarding Palestinian freedom. Balint lost her temper, shouting, “Do you want to go there, attorney general? Are you serious? Talking about antisemitism to a woman who lost her grandfather in the Holocaust.”
Hearing from Epstein’s victims
At one point in the hearing, Rep. Pramila Jayapal asked some of Epstein’s alleged victims sitting in the gallery to raise their hands “if you have still not been able to meet with this Department of Justice.” Jayapal then noted for the record that “every single survivor” who was present raised their hand, according to Time.
Jayapal then turned to Bondi and offered her a chance to apologize “for what your Department of Justice has put them through with the absolutely unacceptable release of the Epstein files and their information.”
Bondi acknowledged the victims in her opening statement, but when asked directly, she pivoted to her predecessor, Merrick Garland. Jayapal asked a second time, and when Bondi refused again, Jayapal responded, “I’m not going to get in the gutter for her theatrics.”
Bipartisan criticism
The criticism isn’t just coming from Democrats. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie also called out Bondi for trying to deflect blame away from the Trump administration, saying, “This cover-up spans decades, and you are responsible for this portion.”
Rep. Nancy Mace told CNN on Wednesday, “I personally have lost all faith in our Justice Department. It’s a system of injustice. There is evidence, there are co-conspirators, you can’t have thousands of victims and have no other accomplices other than one.”
Takeaway
Bondi is now the most likely cabinet member to exit, with odds at 20%.
Her broader 2026 departure odds climbed to 55%.
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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