Pardon me, part three: Ghislaine Maxwell edition

Earlier today, when asked if he was considering a Presidential pardon for convicted sex trafficker and Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell, President Trump responded, "It's something I haven't thought about."

Interestingly enough, that’s also what I tell my wife when she asks which of her friends I think is the hottest. (It’s Megan.)

But as backlash from the administration's refusal to release the Epstein files continues to grow, some are speculating that Trump could agree to pardon Maxwell in exchange for favorable testimony.

Could it happen? Here's what our markets are forecasting.

(Click here to see all our 'Epstein File' markets, including our new market on who will be named in the files.)

This is an opinion, and is not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.

One thing our traders mostly agree on is that if there is a pardon, it's probably weeks, months, or perhaps even years away. That's why the chances of Trump pulling the trigger before August is only 2%.

Odds of a Maxwell pardon before the end of the year are much more likely. The market currently shows a nearly one-in-five chance in 2025.

That said, while a 19% chance of a pardon is probably higher than you'd expect for a convicted sex trafficker, it's still relatively low.

In fact, Maxwell is only the third most likely pardon on the list, with the top two spots currently claimed by former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (28%), and "Bitcoin Jesus" Roger Ver (22%).

So when it comes to Trump pardons, traders seem to think it's crypto bros before Epstein hoes... except for this crypto bro...

FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has only an 8% chance of a pardon.

Of course there is always the possibility that Trump could choose to commute her sentence rather than grant her a pardon. So it's surprising that Maxwell's current odds of being released from prison (17%) are slightly lower than her odds of receiving a pardon (19%).

Either there’s a slight market inefficiency, or I’m missing something (like a chromosome). Either way, this is NOT TRADING ADVICE!

As mentioned above, Maxwell's odds of a Trump pardon in 2025 are slightly less than 20%. And that makes sense, given the current situation.

Unlike previous Trump scandals, some of Trump's own supporters are the most outraged. Given that the call is coming from inside the house, so to speak, would it make sense for Trump to cut a deal with Epstein's closest living associate?

Even Trump's most diehard supporters would likely see through that. Hell, the QAnon Shaman is already jumping ship. And Trump literally pardoned him.

If even the people Trump let out of jail are criticizing him over Epstein, it's hard to see how a Maxwell pardon (or reduced sentence) will smooth things over.

Unless, of course, the pardon doesn't come until the very end of Trump's term, but her testimony comes much sooner. Her odds of testifying before Congress this year are around 30%, and have reached as high as 50%.

As we've previously mentioned, Presidents historically wait until they are leaving office to grant pardons. That way they can avoid the shame and humiliation that comes with letting politically useful convicts out of prison.

But since we live in the post-shame era, Trump turned that playbook on its head by triumphantly granting executive clemency to more than 1,500 people upon his return to office.

However, the Epstein scandal could be the exception that causes Trump to wait. Yes, Maxwell would have to wait three more years to be freed, but it's certainly better than waiting until 2037.

Of course, it's entirely possible Trump has no interest in granting Maxwell a pardon. Perhaps there's nothing to be gained, or nothing damaging enough in the Epstein files to warrant it.

But if the odds of a Maxwell pardon in 2025 are already at 19%, it stands to reason that the odds of a pardon sometime before the end of Trump's current term would be even higher. How much higher remains to be seen.

Hopefully we'll have a market with that timeframe available shortly.

So ignore your friends and family telling you to go outside and take a break from Epstein news, and check back regularly to see our latest 'Epstein file' markets.

Follow Terry Oldreal on X: @realoldterry

The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.