The odds of Kash Patel leaving his post jumped following a damaging report in The Atlantic about his tenure, which described the FBI Director as “MIA.”
Over the weekend, traders increased the chances of Patel exiting his position this year from 50% to 80%.
The market for Patel announcing that he is leaving his position as FBI Director also saw a noticeable jump over the weekend. Traders price an 88% chance he’ll confirm that he is leaving before August.
The Atlantic
The Atlantic’s Sarah Fitzpatrick filed a story on Friday citing several inside sources who said Patel had exhibited “bouts of excessive drinking” while on the job. They also described him as “erratic, suspicious of others, and prone to jumping to conclusions before he has necessary evidence” regarding cases and his work.
The story also says his behavior “has often alarmed officials at the FBI and the Department of Justice, even as he won support from the White House for his eager participation in Trump’s effort to turn federal law enforcement against the president’s perceived political enemies.”
Sources cited in the report say it’s only a matter of time before Patel is out of a job, and that Patel knows his position is in jeopardy. The story opens with an anecdote in which Patel tried to log on to an internal computer system but couldn’t access it.
“He quickly became convinced that he had been locked out, and he panicked, frantically calling aides and allies to announce that he had been fired by the White House, according to nine people familiar with his outreach. Two of these people described his behavior as a ‘freak-out.’”
Patel’s lawsuit
The Atlantic also reached out to the FBI for a chance to comment on the story. Patel released a statement that read, “Print it, all false. I’ll see you in court – bring your checkbook.”
Patel also made an appearance on Fox News’ Sunday morning show with Maria Bartiromo to announce that he planned to sue the news outlet over the story. Then on Monday, he followed through on his promise and filed a defamation lawsuit in the U.S. District Court in the District of Columbia for $250 million in damages.
The lawsuit says The Atlantic’s story “falsely assert” claims about Patel’s behavior and that the outlet “published these statements with actual malice.”
The Atlantic called the lawsuit “meritless” and says it stands behind Fitzpatrick’s reporting.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.