The New England Patriots (1-1) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) on Sunday, Sept. 27 at 1 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium, a matchup between two teams that won 13 or more games in 2025. Kalshi traders have the Jaguars at 60% to win.
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When and where do the Patriots play the Jaguars in Week 3 of the 2026 season?
The Patriots and Jaguars kick off Sunday, Sept. 27 at 1 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, on CBS.
Who is favored to win the Patriots vs. Jaguars Week 3 game?
New England went 14-3 in 2025 under Mike Vrabel and reached Super Bowl LX, where it lost 29-13 to Seattle. Drake Maye finished second in MVP voting, but he is off to a slow start in 2026, with one touchdown and four interceptions through two games. The Patriots lost the season opener 13-10 at Seattle, then beat Pittsburgh 20-3 behind a defense that has held opponents to 17.4% on third down and has not allowed a score on a red-zone trip. Right guard Mike Onwenu is on injured reserve after breaking his ankle against the Steelers, with veteran Greg Van Roten taking his place. Linebackers Dre'Mont Jones and Quintayvious Hutchins are out, and tight end Eli Raridon and safety Craig Woodson are questionable, as of this writing.
Jacksonville went 13-4 in Liam Coen's first season, won the AFC South, and lost 27-24 to Buffalo in the Wild Card round. The Jaguars opened 2026 with a 34-10 win over Cleveland, when Trevor Lawrence threw four touchdown passes, then let a 13-3 second-half lead slip away in a 20-13 loss at Denver, where Lawrence threw for 189 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. Protecting Lawrence was a problem against the Broncos, and the run defense has allowed 191 yards in two games. The Jaguars' injury report is short, with defensive tackle Albert Regis listed as doubtful, as of this writing.
Kalshi power rankings
The Patriots enter as the No. 10 team in the league with a Power Score of 63.5, and Kalshi traders have them at 62% to qualify for the playoffs. The Jaguars rank 11th with a Power Score of 59.2, and Kalshi traders have them at 59% to reach the postseason. That is a one-spot gap heading into Sunday, after New England climbed six spots this week and Jacksonville fell three.
What the Kalshi market says
Kalshi traders have the Jaguars at 60% to win and the Patriots at 40%, as of this writing. That makes Jacksonville a modest home favorite, even though the power rankings have these teams almost even.
What is the point spread for Patriots vs. Jaguars in Week 3?
Kalshi traders have the Jaguars winning by more than 2.5 points at 54%, as of this writing.
What is the projected point total?
Kalshi traders have over 44.5 total points at 56%, as of this writing.
What is the biggest storyline in the Patriots vs. Jaguars Week 3 game?
It is Maye against the Jacksonville pass rush. The Jaguars had five sacks in Week 1 while blitzing at one of the lowest rates in the league, relying on Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker up front. Maye has been sacked six times and has thrown four interceptions, three of them in the fourth quarter at Seattle, and now he will be without his starting right guard. If New England can lean on TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson and keep Maye out of long-yardage situations, its defense gives it a chance to win a low-scoring game.
What are the Patriots' and Jaguars' expectations entering the 2026 season?
New England Patriots: After reaching the Super Bowl in Vrabel's first season, the Patriots came into 2026 as one of the favorites in the AFC. They need Maye to look like last year's version to get back there.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars won the division in Coen's first year and are trying to show that 2025 was the start of something, not a one-season jump. Lawrence's Week 1 performance showed the ceiling, and Week 2 showed the risk.
Conclusion
Kalshi traders have Jacksonville at 60% at home in one of the closest matchups of the early window. The swing factor is Maye's decision-making against a pass rush that can get home without extra help. Kalshi's prices for Patriots vs. Jaguars will keep moving until the game ends.
What are the score predictions for Patriots vs. Jaguars? Kalshi traders have over 44.5 total points at 56%, as of this writing.
What is the spread for Patriots vs. Jaguars? Kalshi traders have the Jaguars winning by more than 2.5 points at 54%, as of this writing.
Who is favored to win, the Patriots or the Jaguars? Kalshi traders have the Jaguars at 60% to win, as of this writing.
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