The pro basketball draft tips off tonight at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, and Kalshi traders have already settled on a heavy favorite to go first overall.
The market for the No. 1 overall pick prices BYU's AJ Dybantsa chances at 90%, well ahead of Kansas' Darryn Peterson at 10% and Duke's Cameron Boozer at 2%.
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Beyond the top spot, most of the projected top 10 pro basketball draft picks are already treated as near-locks on Kalshi, with Dybantsa, Boozer, North Carolina's Caleb Wilson and Peterson all sitting at 99%. The real intrigue is further down the board: Houston's Kingston Flemings leads that tier at 74%, just ahead of Tennessee's Nate Ament at 70%, Arizona's Brayden Burries at 69% and Michigan's Aday Mara at 61%.
What's at stake
Washington holds the No. 1 pick after winning the lottery, and the team has given no public signal of which of the top two prospects it prefers. Picking second is Utah, whose front office is reportedly torn between Peterson and Boozer if Dybantsa is gone by the time it's on the clock.
AJ Dybantsa
The runaway favorite on Kalshi still doesn't know which team will call his name first. The Athletic's Josh Robbins reported that both Dybantsa and Peterson said they've received no signal from Washington on how the top of the board will shake out. "I'm going to find out when you find out," Dybantsa said.
The production backs up the hype. Dybantsa led Division I in scoring as a freshman, averaging 25.5 points per game across 35 games at BYU, while also adding 6.8 rebounds and 3.7 assists a night.
A hometown preference has fueled plenty of speculation given Dybantsa's time at BYU, but he's said he doesn't have one between the two teams picking at the top.
Darryn Peterson
A distant second on the No. 1 pick market, Peterson is still viewed by evaluators as one of the class' most complete prospects. The Kansas guard averaged 20.2 points across 24 games this season while playing through quadriceps, hamstring and ankle injuries, according to Robbins.
Robbins also described Peterson as a foundational-caliber player capable of generating his own offense without screens, a trait that tends to matter more once the postseason starts. If Washington bypasses him for Dybantsa, Robbins added that he could still develop into a long-term answer at point guard for whichever team selects him.
Front office meetings have already happened, too. Peterson has confirmed he's met with members of Washington's staff, including the general manager, telling The Athletic's Josh Robbins, "I feel like I would fit in perfect."
Cameron Boozer
He isn't favored to go first on Kalshi, but Boozer has plenty of believers among draft evaluators. The Athletic's John Hollinger ranked Boozer as his top prospect last month, even though Boozer wasn't the consensus No. 1 on most other boards.
Hollinger didn't ignore the warts. He pointed to Boozer's struggles finishing through length at the rim, an issue that stood out when Virginia's Ugonna Onyenso blocked him repeatedly in the ACC championship game. Even so, Hollinger argued the upside outweighs the rough edges, writing that Boozer is "a huge, wide big man who nonetheless can handle on the perimeter and shoot 3s."
With Dybantsa holding such a wide lead on Kalshi's No. 1 pick market, traders appear to view the top of the draft as largely decided, even though none of the teams involved have confirmed anything publicly.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Dybantsa as the No. 1 pick: 90%
Peterson as the No. 1 pick: 10%
Boozer as the No. 1 pick: 2%
Flemings, Ament, Burries or Mara in the top 10: 74%, 70%, 69% and 61%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: AJ Dybantsa on X
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