Rep. Crenshaw odds: Will Trump’s snub spark an upset in TX-02?

While some news outlets suggest Rep. Dan Crenshaw faces a tough primary, polls and prediction markets tell a different story.

Crenshaw leads on the Texas District 2 market at 78%. Crenshaw’s main opponent, Texas Rep. Steve Toth, trails at 25%. Martin Etwop and N. Lee Plumb sit in a distant third, each with a chance of less than 1%.

(Click here for a detailed look at all of tomorrow’s races on Kalshi’s 2026 Primary Election Hub.)

The winner of the Republican primary for the Texas 2^nd District will face Democratic candidate Shaun Finnie, who is running unopposed in his primary. Traders don’t think Finnie will be able to take the seat from whomever wins the Texas GOP primary.

Markets give Republicans a 94% chance of holding the seat.

Crenshaw is seeking a fifth term representing Texas’s 2^nd District seat in the U.S. House. Even though he’s had some clashes with President Donald Trump over issues like election denialism and immigration, he still holds a sizeable lead in the polls. A Meeting Street Research poll conducted in October found that Crenshaw had a 28-point lead over Toth.

Those stances may have cost him some key Republican endorsements for his latest primary campaign. During President Trump’s recent tour of the Lone Star State, Crenshaw was the only incumbent House Republican he didn’t endorse. Sen. Ted Cruz also provided an endorsement for Toth instead.

Unless a late endorsement reshapes the race or polling tightens significantly, traders appear comfortable pricing this primary as largely settled.

The takeaway:

Kalshi markets now predict:

(Click for Kalshi’s 2026 Primary Election Hub.)

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