The news media is buzzing over the latest scandal involving Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. However, Kalshi traders seem to think he is unlikely to land on President Donald Trump’s “to fire” list anytime soon.
Kennedy seems safe (for now)
As of Tuesday, trades sit at 5 cents that Kennedy will be out of a job, even as he faces intense scrutiny over sexting messages he allegedly sent to reporter Olivia Nuzzi. Odds have dropped four points since Saturday, when The Daily Beast published the text messages.
Traders are also pricing low odds that Kennedy will be the first member of the Trump administration to leave. His current chances are priced at just 4 cents, down one point from Saturday.
President Robert F. Kennedy Jr.?
The scandal also doesn’t appear to be hurting Kennedy’s potential presidential ambitions. In fact, the odds, still low overall, suggest Kennedy is now slightly more likely to run for president in 2028.
Kennedy’s chances of entering the next Republican presidential primary are sitting at 27 cents. His chances dipped by a point following the sexting revelations but rebounded the next day. Vice President J.D. Vance leads the list of possible GOP contenders and currently sits at 84 cents.
How do I love thee? Let me text the ways
Kennedy sent a series of love poems to Nuzzi, now Vanity Fair’s West Coast editor, during the 2024 presidential campaign while she worked for New York magazine. Nuzzi’s ex-fiancé, former Politico reporter Ryan Lizza, leaked the texts to the news outlet and claims he has more that are “too explicit to print.”
So far, Nuzzi and Kennedy’s relationship appears to have been only a “digital” one, consisting of salacious texts. Kennedy allegedly sent Nuzzi messages such as: “Yr [sic] open mouth awaiting my harvest” and “I am a river. You [sic] are my canyon. I mean to flow through you.”
Lizza also told The Daily Beast, “Thanks to Bobby, I am now aware of something called felching.”
Nuzzi may be the one out of a job, not Kennedy
Nuzzi may end up having to pay a bigger price for this scandal than Kennedy, who is married to actress and Curb Your Enthusiasm star Cheryl Hines.
The Independent reported on Friday that Vanity Fair is investigating Nuzzi’s relationship with other high-profile political figures. Lizza also claims that Nuzzi had physical affairs with left-wing commentator and former MSNBC host Keith Olbermann and former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford, who resigned from office in 2009 after admitting to his own extramarital affair.
Nuzzi claimed in a court case with Lizza that he hacked into her devices to obtain damaging information as revenge for their breakup even though she filed no evidence to back up her claims. She also filed a protective order against Lizza, who left his position at Politico in the wake of the Kennedy revelations.
Nuzzi is also planning to release a memoir titled American Canto sometime next year that discusses her relationship with RFK Jr.
Trump administration exits?
While RFK Jr. may look safe for now, there are currently other rumors circulating that President Trump may fire FBI Director Kash Patel over the negative press surrounding his misuse of his taxpayer-funded private jet and insistence that a SWAT team guard his country-singer girlfriend, Alexis Wilkins, during a performance at a National Rifle Association event in Atlanta last spring.
However, after a strong denial from the White House earlier today, Patel’s odds of leaving his post dropped back down to 13%.
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