Scotland and Brazil meet today in Miami in a Group C finale that could send the Tartan Army into the World Cup knockout stage for the first time in the nation's history, assuming the visitors from outer space stay home.
According to Barstool Sports, a Brazilian psychic has gone viral warning that a UFO mothership will descend on Hard Rock Stadium during today's match. However, Kalshi traders currently price the odds of the U.S. Government confirming the existence of aliens in 2026 at just 11.3%.
Meanwhile, back on earth, Brazil sits atop the group on goal difference after a 1-1 draw with Morocco and a 3-0 win over Haiti, while Scotland needs just one more point to all but guarantee progression following its 1-0 win over Haiti and 1-0 defeat to Morocco.
Kalshi traders give Brazil a 76% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 18% and Scotland at 9%.
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What's at stake
A win for either side would settle plenty.
Brazil would lock up top spot in the group regardless of Morocco's result against Haiti, while Scotland would clinch its first knockout-stage berth at a major tournament in its history. A draw would also be enough for the Scots in all but the most extreme circumstances, giving Steve Clarke's side a near-certain path through even without all three points.
Only a Scotland win really scrambles Group C's seedings, since Morocco and Brazil currently sit level on points separated by goal difference alone.
Scotland's path to history
Scotland opened their tournament with a 1-0 win over Haiti before a fast start undid them against Morocco, who scored after just over a minute on their way to a 1-0 win in Foxborough. Opta noted that Clarke's starting XI against the Atlas Lions featured a combined total of senior caps higher than any lineup in Scottish football history, underlining how much experience this group is leaning on to finally break new ground.
John McGinn has been the attacking spark so far, scoring the rebound that beat Haiti and setting up little else of note since, while Lewis Ferguson has quietly led the side in tackles, interceptions and duels won.
The history books offer little comfort. Scotland has faced Brazil four times at the World Cup and never won, with three defeats and a goalless draw back in 1974. It has also never beaten South American opposition at a World Cup in six total attempts, a streak Clarke's side will be desperate to finally end on Wednesday.
Brazil chasing a cleaner finish
Carlo Ancelotti's side has not been at its fluent best through two matches, surviving an early Morocco goal to draw 1-1 before finding its rhythm in a 3-0 win over Haiti built on a Matheus Cunha double and a Vinícius Júnior strike.
That result pushed Brazil's all-time World Cup goal tally past Germany's record, and Vinícius has now been involved in six goals across his last five appearances for the national team.
Raphinha is out with a hamstring injury, putting more creative weight on Vinícius and potentially Neymar, who has returned to full training and could feature for the first time this tournament. Brazil is unbeaten in its last several meetings with Scotland and has outscored it nine goals to two across the sides' World Cup history.
Group C picture
Beyond today's match, the group qualifier market has Brazil and Morocco both at 99% to advance from Group C, reflecting how comfortable both sides' positions are heading into the final round.
Scotland sits at 73%, a number that has drifted down slightly as traders weigh the difficulty of the Brazil fixture, while Haiti's chances have been priced below 1% since its elimination last week.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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