It’s been more than two decades since an American man won a Grand Slam singles title. In 2003, Andy Roddick defeated Juan Carlos Ferrero in straight sets to lift the US Open trophy.
Since that time, another American man hasn’t won any of the four yearly events that headline the sport.
But this year, an American man will play for the chance to end the drought, guaranteed by the fact that Americans Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe will square off in a semifinal matchup on Friday evening.
Kalshi traders make Shelton, who upset tournament favorite Carlos Alcaraz, the favorite at 73%. Tiafoe is trading at 28% as of Friday morning.
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Shelton leads the head-to-head with Tiafoe
Friday night’s matchup between Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe will not be the first time the pair have taken the spotlight in Arthur Ashe Stadium. The matchup provides spectators a rematch of the 2023 US Open quarterfinals, where Shelton upset Tiafoe in four sets to earn his first ever Grand Slam semifinal berth.
In a bid to avenge that loss this year, Tiafoe is now the underdog, priced at 28% by Kalshi traders as of Friday morning.
The American pair have met four times before on tour, with Shelton leading 3-1 in those encounters. The left-hander’s lone loss came at the US Open in 2024, when Tiafoe snuck by with a fifth set win in the third round.
In their most recent meeting on the hard courts in Washington last year, Shelton took back the reins, winning in straight sets.
Each has faced adversity along the path to their latest clash. Shelton needed to defeat the defending champion, an opponent he had never beaten before, in order to clinch a semifinal berth. Tiafoe on the other hand was just two points away from defeat, overcoming a two set deficit to similarly succeed in match tiebreak against fellow American Alex Michelsen.
Both of their previous contests at the US Open have gone at least four sets, signaling the potential for a tight affair. Kalshi traders are pricing tonight’s match similarly, with odds of more than 3.5 sets being played trading at 68%.
Zverev favored to reach his second US Open final
Alexander Zverev let a two set lead slip away in the 2020 US Open final against Dominic Thiem.
He might get a chance to redeem himself this year.
Kalshi traders make him the favorite to return to the final stage, pricing the German at 80% in his matchup with Karen Khachanov.
The pair have battled nine times before on tour, with Zverev winning six of the nine matchups, including four of the last five. While they both turned pro in 2013, the pair's careers have taken slightly different trajectories in recent years.
Zverev has remained at the top of the game, jumping to No. 2 in the world and winning his first Grand Slam title this season. Meanwhile, Khachanov, a former world No. 8, had a losing record this season coming into the event and had fallen to No. 50 prior to his run to the semifinals.
The Russian has found his form this event though, upsetting No. 3 seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round and No. 14 seed Learner Tien in the fourth round.
He’ll need to level up to knock off Zverev, who has shaken off the rust of his first two rounds, winning every set he’s played since the second round.
Zverev the favorite to win his second Grand Slam title
Alexander Zverev needs to win two more matches to earn his second ever Grand Slam title.
Kalshi traders make him the favorite to do so, pricing his title odds at 50% prior to his semifinal tilt on Friday.
Should he find his way through Khachanov on Friday, Zverev will likely be a notable favorite against either Shelton or Tiafoe. The 6-foot-6 German has had tremendous success over the pair in their time on tour, going 9-1 lifetime against Tiafoe and 5-0 against Shelton.
If someone is to knock off the top seed, traders think it will be Shelton. He took the court against two-time US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz as a sizable underdog. But after finding his way through in a thrilling five set encounter, Shelton’s odds to lift the trophy surged, jumping from around 11% to nearly 33% in wake of the victory.
Those odds have now grown to 38% as his semifinal clash with Frances Tiafoe approaches.
Friday’s underdogs are on the outside looking in according to Kalshi traders, with Tiafoe’s odds at 9% and Khachanov at 6% to lift the trophy.
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Image Source: Darren Carroll, USTA
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