South Africa and South Korea meet today in Monterrey in a Group A finale that will decide which of them joins Mexico in the round of 32, with Bafana Bafana needing a win while the Taegeuk Warriors can advance with a draw.
Kalshi traders give South Korea a 62% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 24% and South Africa at 16%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
What's at stake
Both teams arrive in Guadalupe with one Group A match left, and only one of them is guaranteed to keep playing past today. South Korea sits second with three points after beating Czechia 2-1 in its opener before falling 0-1 to Mexico, and a draw or better against South Africa locks up the runner-up spot outright.
South Africa, meanwhile, sits fourth with a single point after losing 0-2 to Mexico and drawing 1-1 with Czechia, leaving Bafana Bafana with a must-win scenario that still requires help elsewhere, since a South Africa victory only guarantees third place and a shot at one of the eight best third-place berths.
South Africa head coach Hugo Broos has been blunt about the equation his team faces. News24 reported that Broos called the must-win nature of the match almost simplifying, saying "the most important thing is that we win tomorrow" ahead of what is expected to be his final World Cup as Bafana's coach.
South Africa look for a first-ever World Cup win
Bafana Bafana have never won a match at a men's World Cup in three prior group-stage appearances, and that drought continued with a 2-0 loss to co-host Mexico on opening day before a gritty response against Czechia.
Goals from Julián Quiñones and Raúl Jiménez sank South Africa in Mexico City, and the team played the back half of that match down to nine men after Sphephelo Sithole and Themba Zwane were both sent off, per Seoul Economic Daily.
South Africa steadied itself five days later, falling behind early to Czechia before Teboho Mokoena leveled from the penalty spot in the 83rd minute to secure a 1-1 draw. Mokoena now misses the South Korea match through suspension after picking up a second yellow card, a loss Broos has acknowledged will test his side's composure in midfield without their penalty hero. Sithole returns from his own suspension and could start in his place.
South Korea controls its own destiny
South Korea opened the tournament with a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Czechia, with Hwang In-beom and Oh Hyeon-gyu scoring in the final 15 minutes to erase Ladislav Krejčí's early header. The Taegeuk Warriors then lost 0-1 to Mexico in their second match after goalkeeper Kim Seung-gyu spilled a high ball under pressure, gifting Luis Romo a tap-in.
Coach Hong Myung-bo has rejected the idea of playing for the draw that would be enough to send his team through. Seoul Economic Daily reported that Hong called South Africa "a tricky team," adding that "if we think a draw is acceptable, we'll find ourselves in trouble." He also plans to change two or three positions in his starting lineup to chase a win instead.
Group A picture
Mexico has already clinched top spot in Group A with six points, leaving the runner-up slot as the only thing left to settle between South Korea, South Africa and Czechia, who play the co-hosts at the same time today.
Kalshi markets currently put South Korea's odds of advancing out of the group at 95%, with Czechia next at 25% and South Africa at 14%. Czechia's path requires beating Mexico while also hoping South Africa fails to beat South Korea, a scenario the market is pricing as unlikely given Mexico has already wrapped up the group and has less on the line.
The bigger picture
Neither Group A side carries title ambitions, but advancing still matters for tournament positioning. France remains the favorite to win the World Cup outright at 19.1% on Kalshi, with Argentina next at 15.1% and Spain close behind at 13.3%.
South Korea and South Africa both sit far down that list, but a round of 32 berth would be a historic first for South Africa and a step toward matching South Korea's best-ever World Cup runs.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
