South Carolina Senate odds still favor Graham as Andrews closes polling gap

While incumbent Senator Darline Graham continues to hold a sizable lead in Kalshi's market for the South Carolina Senate race, Democratic challenger Annie Andrews is showing considerable strength in traditional polling as the November 3rd midterms approach.

Traders currently give Graham a 75% chance of victory compared with Andrews' 25%, a significant difference from recent polling showing the candidates separated by just one to three points.

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Despite Graham maintaining a substantial advantage on Kalshi, recent polling indicates a considerably tighter contest in a state President Donald Trump carried by nearly 18 points in 2024.

According to The State's October 27th reporting, a South Carolina Policy Council poll conducted October 16th through 25th found Graham receiving 47% support compared with Andrews' 46%, with 4% of voters undecided.

The survey of 1,200 registered voters also found Andrews holding a slight lead among those who have already voted, while Graham maintains an advantage among voters planning to cast their ballots on Election Day.

Another recent survey conducted October 16th through 18th showed Graham leading 49% to 46%, with a reported margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Kalshi's polling average currently shows Graham at 45.6% and Andrews at 45.3%, considerably closer than the difference in their respective chances of victory on Kalshi.

With the election less than a week away, President Trump is returning to South Carolina on Thursday for a campaign rally in Rock Hill, hoping to consolidate Republican support for Graham. This comes as divisions within the Republican Party have complicated the closing weeks of the campaign.

Following Graham's victory over Congressman Ralph Norman in the Republican primary runoff, some conservative voters have continued encouraging a write-in campaign for Norman. Other prominent Republicans have called on the congressman to do more to unify voters behind Graham.

The divisions come as Andrews has secured several notable cross-party endorsements. Former Republican Governor David Beasley and former Democratic Governor Jim Hodges recently appeared together in a campaign video endorsing Andrews, emphasizing political division and the need for cooperation.

While these developments do not necessarily establish how voters will cast their ballots, they highlight the unusual political dynamics surrounding the race.

Another important development involves campaign fundraising, with Andrews reporting significantly more cash on hand heading into the final weeks of the election. According to Federal Election Commission figures cited by The State, Andrews had approximately $1.7 million available as of October 14th, compared with Graham's $634,000.

However, outside political organizations have spent millions supporting and opposing both candidates, making direct campaign fundraising only one part of the overall financial picture. Early voting could also play an important role in determining the final result.

Recent polling indicates Andrews holds a slight advantage among those who have already voted, while Graham leads among voters planning to cast their ballots on November 3rd. 

With polling showing such narrow margins, the final composition of the electorate and distribution of undecided voters remain important factors heading into Election Day.

While Darline Graham maintains a substantial lead on Kalshi, Annie Andrews continues to show strength in traditional polling, with several recent surveys indicating a nearly tied race.

Republican divisions, cross-party endorsements, and contrasting early-voting patterns have added uncertainty to the final week of campaigning.

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