Two months after the June 9 primary, South Carolina will hold a special primary on Tuesday to determine who will replace the late Lindsey Graham on November's ballot.
Senator Graham died on July 12 from a sudden medical emergency. Under South Carolina law, the governor is permitted to appoint a replacement for the remainder of the term. South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to finish out the remainder of his term. Shortly thereafter, Graham Nordone also announced her candidacy for the special primary election.
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Graham is part of a crowded field of South Carolina Republicans all vying for the Senate seat that Lindsey Graham held for over twenty years. At one point after announcing her candidacy, Darline Graham had as high as an 80% chance of winning the primary.
Currently, she has a 42% chance of securing the nomination and a 94% chance of advancing to the runoff. South Carolina primary rules call for a runoff election if no candidate receives a majority of the vote. With 10 candidates in the special primary, it will be a tall task for any candidate to receive a majority on Tuesday.
Graham is trailed by a pair of South Carolina Congressmen, Ralph Norman and Russell Fry. A straw poll by the South Carolina GOP showed both leading Graham ahead of Tuesday's election.
Fifth District Congressional Rep. Ralph Norman was one of many contenders in the South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary. However, Norman ended up placing third and missed out on the runoff election.
Seventh District Congressional Rep. Russell Fry was hand-picked by President Trump in 2022 to run against GOP Rep. Tom Rice, who had voted to impeach Trump in 2021.
Norman has a 32% chance of winning the nomination, Fry a 20% chance. Norman has a significant edge in odds to advance to the runoff, with a 67% chance compared to Fry's 37% chance.
With 10 candidates in total in the race, a number of South Carolina Republicans could look to play spoiler on Tuesday. Former Governor Mark Sanford leads all other remaining candidates with a 3% chance of winning the nomination.
With Graham's seat staying in Republican hands through the midterms and the South Carolina Senate seat remaining a GOP stronghold regardless of candidate, KPOW remains at a slight GOP lean of +1.3 R.
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