In the week after the midterm elections, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida has seen his chances rise faster than any other candidate’s to be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
DeSantis’ probability has more than tripled to 17% from 4.8% on Election Day, putting him in a tie with Secretary of State Marco Rubio for second place behind Vice President J.D. Vance, according to Kalshi’s event contract for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
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Rubio has seen his odds decline about six percentage points in the same period to 17%, while Vance’s probability stands at 34% as of Nov. 10, making him the front-runner for the nomination.
“There’s no debate about whether DeSantis is considering a bid. He is,” according to a Nov. 8 Axios report. “Asked whether he plans to run again, DeSantis wouldn't say. But he emphasized that ‘I haven't planned anything because I just think this is a very uncertain time.’”
Following their historic midterm loss, Republicans are grappling with who is to blame for their defeat and who will succeed Trump as leader of the MAGA base. CNBC on Nov. 10 said, “Vice President JD Vance faults the war in Iran. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defends it. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis says Republicans fought the wrong battles.”
“The competing visions from potential presidential contenders offer an early glimpse of the Republican infighting ahead of 2028,” CNBC continued. “But all face the same dilemma: How to convince voters the party can change course without alienating Trump or the MAGA base they need to win the nomination.”
Kalshi traders favor a loss for the Republican Party in the 2028 presidential contest, giving Democrats a 66% chance of winning.
What the polls say
In 14 of the 15 most recent polls, Vance has garnered the highest share of support, The New York Times reported.
The most recent poll of 427 likely voters, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates between Oct. 30 and Nov. 5, shows Vance leading among Republicans with 35% support, ahead of Rubio at 17% and DeSantis at 14%.
The second-most recent survey, an AtlasIntel poll of 3,566 likely voters, fielded before the midterm elections, found Rubio as the front-runner with 46% support, Vance at 33% and DeSantis at 5%.
“The race has yet to heat up, but the early front-runners for the Republican nomination in 2028 are all close allies of President Trump, rather than candidates who would try to distance themselves from the current administration,” The Times said on Nov. 9.
“Through a mix of open-ended questions and hypothetical scenarios, some early polls have also included Trump himself, despite his being constitutionally barred from seeking another term,” The Times added. Prediction market odds of Trump running for a third term before Nov. 7, 2028, stand at 12%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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