The week ahead: Hegseth, Huang, and 2028 hopefuls

Good day, traders.

Hopefully you were able to enjoy your first weekend in months without political advertisements.

Since the Nov. 3 midterms, a few stories have made headlines, namely who will be the next member of the Trump administration to leave their role, who will run for president, and whether Jensen Huang will leave as NVIDIA CEO.

With all three of those topics and markets to tackle, we are going to get right into it.

After the midterms, there has been significant talk online and volatility in our market concerning Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?

Shortly after the blue wave splashed, rumors began circulating that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth could leave his role in the Trump administration.

Hegseth, whom some blame for the situation in Iran, which ties closely to the rise in gas prices that swayed voters, is at the top of traders’ minds. And it is not just political analysts putting the responsibility on Hegseth. President Trump and Vice President JD Vance both pointed to the conflict in the Middle East as a reason for the Republican loss. This was shortly followed by an interview in which Trump said he intended to keep Hegseth and that he had “done a good job.”

In lesser-known roles, Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter and U.S. DOGE Service Acting Administrator Amy Gleason have also seen their odds of leaving rise. The Department of Justice is experiencing actual turnover, and given his high-ranking role, traders are likely pricing this into McCotter. For Gleason, however, talk about the role DOGE played in Republicans losing the midterms by cutting Medicare and other social programs has likely led some to think she will leave soon too, in a similar manner to Hegseth.

While not a departure, there was also significant news about Who will be Trump’s next Press Secretary? On Nov. 7, President Trump made a post on Truth Social offering the position to UFC CEO Dana White and asking him to bring top foreign and domestic fighters, including Khabib Nurmagomedov, Islam Makhachev, and Justin Gaethje, to help run the office. Despite Trump clarifying that he was “only kidding” and White reportedly declining, the episode has put the open position back in the public eye.

Because politics never end, many are turning their eyes to markets concerning the next presidency. While some individuals in both parties, like Marco Rubio, JD Vance, and Ron DeSantis of the Republican Party, along with Pete Buttigieg, Gavin Newsom, and Cory Booker of the Democratic Party, have already been given high odds of running by traders, we will be turning our attention to individuals with candidacies that are more of a toss-up.

And since they are coming off a win, we will start with Who will run for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ruben Gallego is an Arizona senator who has appealed to those looking for a moderate Democrat with reach among the working class and a growing contingent of Latino voters. His initiatives include increasing the federal minimum wage and taxing automation to protect workers from job loss.

On the other hand, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a progressive from New York with a very recognizable brand. She has risen to become one of the top voices in the Democratic Party and spent a lot of time campaigning with Democratic candidates for the 2026 midterms. Whether her progressive ideas will resonate with moderate voters is still up in the air, and that is one likely reason her odds of running to represent the party are a toss-up.

Elissa Slotkin is a Michigan senator who has built her strategy around pragmatism. Having worked in national security under administrations of both parties, she focuses on solutions that are appealing and workable to voters in the middle of the country. As the country has become more divided politically, she looks to bridge that gap, but further division within the Democratic Party could stop her.

Jumping to the other side of the aisle, Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination shows some familiar faces along with newcomers. Chris Christie served as governor of New Jersey and ran in both the 2016 and 2024 presidential races. He gained the spotlight after the midterms by declaring that the Trump era was over and that the president’s leadership had damaged the party. While this rhetoric might win over voters in the middle, it could alienate MAGA supporters.

Brian Kemp is the outgoing governor of Georgia and has a track record of winning despite opposition from Democrats and even Trump himself. In Georgia, Kemp is considered by many to be a conventional conservative focused on economic development and tax cuts. While those priorities appeal to a large portion of Americans, including small business owners, his lack of a national presence makes it a toss-up whether he runs.

The last potential candidate we will be highlighting is Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin was the governor of Virginia from 2022 to 2026 after winning an election in a state that has gotten bluer over time. His platform focused mainly on education reform and economic issues that appeal to a large swath of voters regardless of party affiliation. While these issues appeal to many, he, like Kemp and Democrat Ruben Gallego, lacks national recognition, which could make the path to the presidency more difficult.

Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, which some would argue is the world’s most important company, has found himself in controversy after admitting to an extramarital relationship with a woman whom U.S. intelligence reportedly identifies as working with Chinese intelligence.

Alice Huang, a Chinese businesswoman and former executive at Megaspeed, a major NVIDIA customer, is believed to have been recruited by China’s Ministry of State Security to build a relationship with Jensen to influence policy toward business practices in China.

Since NVIDIA produces some of the world’s most advanced AI chips, which are subject to export controls, the more than $4.8 billion in AI hardware containing NVIDIA chips that a Malaysian affiliate of Megaspeed purchased has come under scrutiny. Importantly, it has not been established that Jensen participated in any illegal business dealings or disclosed any sensitive information.

This has led many to question When will Jensen Huang leave as NVIDIA CEO? On Sunday, Nov. 8, NVIDIA announced an independent board investigation into the matter. While traders immediately began repricing whether he would remain CEO, the bigger news for the market will likely come out of the Nov. 18 closed-door congressional briefing that three House Republican committee chairs have asked Jensen to attend to answer questions about his relationship with Alice Huang and NVIDIA’s practices to guard against corporate espionage.

As we alluded to above, there is no evidence that Jensen Huang knowingly conspired with a Chinese intelligence agent. But due to the potential national security implications and the risk of being targeted by foreign intelligence, the scandal has sent quite a few ripples through the market.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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