NFL trade deadline odds: Will Jonathan Taylor or Kirk Cousins get traded?

Teams around the National Football League are running out of time to put together season-changing deals that could land them the missing piece for a Super Bowl run.

The NFL trade deadline is at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2026, after which no players can be dealt from one team to another.

As the clock ticks on deadline day, Kalshi traders are weighing in on which names might be traded, including key players like Jonathan Taylor and Kirk Cousins.

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Odds for some players to be traded have been volatile on Tuesday as Kalshi traders weigh in real time whether deals will be completed by the 4 p.m. ET deadline.

As it stands, traders make Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Josh Downs the most likely player on the board to be dealt, pricing him at 71% to be traded to a new team before the deadline. That marks a 21-percentage-point increase from this time last week.

The fourth-year player requested a trade from the floundering Colts team on Oct. 28, 2026. Indianapolis has lost five straight games and holds a record of 2-7.

After Downs, veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins and defensive back Riq Woolen are likely trade targets, according to Kalshi traders. The 38-year-old Cousins is suiting up for his fourth team in Las Vegas, but the Raiders are 4-5 and contending teams, like Cousins' former team the Minnesota Vikings, are in need of quarterback help. As of Tuesday afternoon, markets imply a 60% probability that the signal caller is huddling up with another team after the deadline.

Woolen, on the other hand, is similarly trading around 61% to be dealt to a new team ahead of the deadline. The corner could provide defensive help for a contending team, as the Eagles' season has taken a turn for the worse. Reports include the Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, and Detroit Lions as potential options for the veteran defender.

Josh Downs is not the only Indianapolis Colts offensive weapon that might be dealt. Superstar running back Jonathan Taylor remains a prominent trade candidate, according to Kalshi traders.

Taylor has been rumored in deal speculation for weeks, but his odds of being dealt have actually been dwindling. Ahead of the deadline, Kalshi traders make his odds of being dealt just 35% on Tuesday. However, at this time last week Taylor was priced around 85% to be suiting up for another team.

Should the running back, who is arguably the biggest potential game-changer on the market, be dealt, where might he end up?

Kalshi markets currently imply a 14% probability that Taylor may be a New York Giant after the deadline and a 6% probability that he’s taking the field for the Minnesota Vikings. Yet, the market is currently implying a 66% chance that Taylor will still be with the Colts after the deadline.

As names float in and out of trade rumors leading up to the 4 p.m. ET deadline, a pair of other notable names are priced around 40% to be dealt on Tuesday.

Longtime Cardinals safety Budda Baker is priced at 42% to be dealt, according to Kalshi traders. The defender has spent his entire career in Arizona but is now being connected in reported trade rumors for teams in need of defensive help, like the Buffalo Bills.

Meanwhile, Colts cornerback Sauce Gardner’s odds jumped up to 39%, nearly a 36-percentage-point increase as of early Tuesday afternoon.

Other notable names, like Cardinals defender Josh Sweat, Titans wide receiver Calvin Ridley, and Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, are also seeing attention from Kalshi traders, each priced between 20% and 30% to be dealt.

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