Spain closes out the group stage against Uruguay today, needing just a point to win Group H outright after bouncing back from its opening shock with a 4-0 rout of Saudi Arabia. Kalshi traders give Spain a 61% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 27% and Uruguay at 15%.
The result carries weight well beyond the Spain-Uruguay scoreline. Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia kick off at the same time in Group H's other game, and depending on how both matches break, any of the four teams could still be playing for a spot in the knockout round when the whistle blows.
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What's at stake in Group H
Spain leads the group with four points after its 0-0 opening draw with Cape Verde and Sunday's 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia. Cape Verde sits second on two points after drawing both of its matches, a 0-0 with Spain and a 2-2 comeback against Uruguay. Uruguay and Saudi Arabia are tied for third with one point apiece, after the two sides drew 1-1 in their opener. A win for Uruguay would put La Celeste back in the picture for a top-two finish, while a Saudi Arabia win over Cape Verde would revive a team that has otherwise been written off.
Spain looks to close out the group
Spain stumbled out of the gate against Cape Verde on June 15, drawing 0-0 in a match it dominated on the ball but couldn't finish. Spain coach Luis de la Fuente said the team should have won given the chances it created, citing a lack of freshness and a clinical edge. The response came six days later, as Mikel Oyarzabal scored twice and Lamine Yamal opened the scoring in a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, with an own goal from Hassan Al Tambakti completing the rout.
A point today is enough to secure top spot in Group H for Spain, while a loss would open the door for Uruguay or even a third-place scramble depending on the Cape Verde-Saudi Arabia result.
Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia fight for a lifeline
While Spain and Uruguay headline the day, Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia's meeting carries its own stakes. Cape Verde has been the story of Group H, drawing both of its matches against far more decorated opponents, backing up its scoreless draw with Spain by salvaging a 2-2 result against Uruguay through a second-half equalizer. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is still searching for its first win after drawing Uruguay 1-1 and falling 4-0 to Spain.
Kalshi traders give Cape Verde a 39% chance to win, with Saudi Arabia at 35% and a tie at 29%.
Group H winner
Spain enters today as an 84% favorite to top Group H outright on Kalshi, with Uruguay a distant second at 13%. Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia trail at 3% and under 1%, respectively, reflecting how much ground both teams would still need to make up even with a win today.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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