Survivor 50 Episode 10 odds: This castaway has a 94% chance of heading home

Episode 10 of Survivor 50 airs tonight on CBS, and Kalshi markets show Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick as the heavy favorite to be voted off the island.

Traders in tonight's elimination market price Kendrick's chance of heading home at 94%, followed by Emily Flippen at 4% and Rick Devens at 4%.

Why are traders so confident Stephenie is heading home tonight? One theory is that her cutthroat strategy has made her the next target.

Inside Survivor's Cory Gage wrote that Steph's alliance is starting to dwindle. Only she, Jonathan Young, and Joe Hunter remain together and "are on the outside after their alliance lost two numbers — but Steph is enraged and ready to fight back, cutting any throat she has to."

The odds are a little tighter on the host's mention market for tonight's episode.

Traders price the chances that host Jeff Probst will say "Immunity Idol" and "Record/Longest" at 60% each, indicating that we may see a new record-setting moment tonight. Traders also price a 59% chance that Probst will say "Hunger/Hungry."

Last week's episode featured a surprise appearance from Tonight Show host Jimmy Fallon. Markets also suggest contestants will be talking about last week's surprise cameo.

The contestant mention market prices the odds of someone saying "Fallon" at 57%, and "Blood/Bloody" and "Loyal/Loyalty" at 48% each.

The 50th season of Survivor has featured some of the greatest castaways to ever play the game, but it is also turning into a celebrity appearance fest, including a surprise cameo from YouTube star MrBeast in the eighth episode.

Entertainment Weekly's Dalton Ross wrote in his recap that Fallon joined the fray in the ninth episode and noted that the late-night talk show host "may actually be the master negotiator when it comes to Survivor."

Probst put up some rice as a prize to a handful of contestants to see if they could outlast him in the episode's challenge. In a rare twist, Probst competed in the challenge himself, with nothing at stake but bragging rights.

Ross wrote that Probst had made some kind of "shady backroom deal with Fallon" unbeknownst to the players. "It was a no-lose situation for us viewers," Ross said. "Hilarity would have ensued Choose Your Own Adventure style no matter what page you turned to."

Kalshi markets now predict:

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