Survivor odds: Traders are pricing a double elimination for episode 12, but who will go home?

There are only two episodes left of the 50th season of Survivor, and host Jeff Probst hinted in a recent interview that two contestants will leave the island on tonight's installment. And based on current Kalshi pricing, traders appear to be taking him at his word.

Currently, Rick Devens and Cirie Fields are priced as the most likely contestants to be eliminated at 90% and 89%, respectively. Tiffany Nicole Ervin is a distant third on the market at 9%.

This season has already seen three double eliminations, and it looks like it won't stop there. Probst spoke with TV Insider about the upcoming finale and claimed that five contestants will remain after tonight, meaning two will have to be eliminated at Tribal Council.

Probst also noted that he thinks just about anyone could win the season because there "isn't one clear frontrunner. It's truly wide open. For real."

While Probst may feel that there is no clear frontrunner, Kalshi’s markets tell a different story. Traders currently show Aubry Bracco as the favorite to win Survivor 50 at 91%, followed by Jonathan Young at 4%, and Joe Hunter at 3%.

As for tonight’s episode, traders may feel Rick and Cirie's heads are on the chopping block because of moves they made in the previous episode.

Entertainment Weekly's Dalton Ross called Rick a "chaos agent" throughout the season, which seems to have worked to his advantage so far. But that strategy could lead to his downfall tonight.

Rick seemed very elated about surviving last week's Tribal Council. He was literally dancing like "a resident of Bomont, Utah, the morning after they repealed that nonsensical 'no dancing allowed' law by cutting footloose everywhere he could." Joe thought Rick's antics were in "extremely poor taste."

Cirie called Rick's rug-cutting just business as usual for a show like Survivor by remarking, "That is just Survivor."

Traders aren't exactly sure what will happen during tonight's broadcast and how Probst will tease or react to the action.

The market for Probst's dialogue shows traders think he'll say "Risk" at 37%, "Key" at 32%, and "Trust" at 31%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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