One of television’s longest-running reality competitions will kick off its 50th season tonight. The premiere of Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans, hosted by Jeff Probst, airs at 8 p.m. ET.
Even before the premiere, traders are already pricing outcomes on how the first episode and the entire season will unfold.
Who will go home first?
Markets now forecast a 94% chance of contestant Jenna Lewis-Dougherty being the first player to leave the Mamanuca Islands. Dougherty finished eighth in Survivor’s first season and third in Season 8 (All-Stars).
Although Lewis-Dougherty hasn’t competed in years, she recently told Entertainment Weekly she came back to compete, saying “I’m not here to play with integrity.”
Traders seem to think her competitive and ruthless strategy could get her voted off the island in tonight’s opening episode.
What will Jeff Probst say?
Markets are also pricing which words the host will use to describe the action and participants in the premiere episode. Words like “fire” and “flint” are already in the high 90s.
One of the more competitive options is “immunity idol” at 76%. Traders have also assigned a 71% chance for “fish/fishing,” a 65% chance for “trust,” and a 44% chance for “alliance.”
What else can we expect this season?
The 50th season of Survivor features a mix of past contestants going back to the very first group of castaways, and traders are already putting odds on who will win overall.
Aubry Bracco leads the field at 76%, a commanding margin for a returning player. Her track record backs it up: three appearances, including a runner-up finish in Season 32.
The website Defector also calls Bracco “one of the most beloved players of the modern era.”
Since the viewers have more control over this new season, traders may think the fans will give her plenty of edges and protection from elimination.
The takeaway
Kalshi traders now predict:
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