Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn will face off again after neither candidate secured a majority in the Republican primary, sending the race to a May 26 runoff.
Cornyn, whose odds fell to 15% in late February, forced the runoff, which will determine who faces Democrat James Talarico in November.
With the primary results now settled, traders have turned their attention to the runoff and the general election in November.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.
The Republican Senate nominee market now reflects a much tighter race between the two candidates.
As of Wednesday morning (12:21 AM ET), Attorney General Ken Paxton is trading around 55%, while Sen. John Cornyn is trading around 45% as traders weigh the upcoming runoff election.
Cornyn’s performance in the first round reshaped the outlook for the race and set up what could be an intense second campaign between the two Republicans over the next several weeks.
November outlook
Despite the primary turbulence, Kalshi traders still see Republicans as the favorites to hold the seat in November.
The Texas Senate winner market currently gives Republicans a 65% chance of winning the seat, compared with 35% for Democrats. However, Republican odds were above 80% in late 2025, so the race has clearly tightened.
Democrats will be represented by Texas Rep. James Talarico, who now advances to the general election and will face the winner of the Paxton–Cornyn runoff.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.