The week ahead: will the shutdown saga cause a midterm meltdown?

Happy day 20 of the federal government shutdown to all who celebrate. I hope you’re able to spend it with your friends and loved ones reflecting on the true meaning of this special occasion.

And even if you’re not reflecting on this stupid mess, I’m pretty sure Chuck Schumer and the Democrats are. If they aren’t, perhaps they should be, because chances of the Democrats winning back control of the House in the 2026 midterms are dropping like a rock. Is the shutdown to blame?

_{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

A recent AP-NORC poll showed that Americans blame both parties equally for the current state of affairs. That might not seem like bad news for Dems at first glance. But polls from earlier in the month showed the majority of the public blaming the GOP, which means things don’t seem to be trending in the Democrats’ favor.

Speaking of bad trends, earlier this year, the chances of the Democrats winning back the House in the 2026 midterms were over 80%. Today, that number has fallen to a new low of 57%.

Of course, the tide began to turn long before the shutdown, thanks in large part to the threat of red state redistricting and unfavorable Supreme Court decisions. So the shutdown itself isn’t fully to blame. But if polling continues to show the public blaming the Democrats, I’d expect them to reach a deal sooner rather than later (NOT TRADING ADVICE).

Speaking of reaching a deal, earlier today, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett told CNBC that the shutdown was likely to end “sometime this week,” before adding that failure to reach a deal would result in stronger measures from President Trump.

Many Kalshi traders seem to have taken the comments to heart, since our “shutdown length” market forecast swiftly dropped from 44 days to 35.5. Is a deal really in the works, or is it time to buy the dip?

But enough about Congress. It turns out that there are other ways to steal from the general populace that don’t involve being elected to public office. Just ask these thieves in France, who used power tools and a truck equipped with a mechanical lift to steal priceless Napoleonic treasures from the Louvre in a daring daylight raid.

According to the BBC, experts fear that if the criminals are not caught within the next 48 hours, the jewels they stole are unlikely to be recovered intact. Sadly, our traders price the chances of anyone being charged with the crime before November at only 20%, which doesn’t bode well for les bijoux de Bonaparte.

Random markets Terry would love to trade if he didn't work here.

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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}