Time's Person of the Year Odds: Trump, Mamdani neck and neck

The race for Time's 2026 Person of the Year has turned into a horse race between President Donald Trump and New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, with Pope Leo XIV firmly in the mix.

Trump currently leads with a 28% chance of being named Time's 2026 Person of the Year, but it's been closer than that number suggests. He dipped as low as 21% in recent days, putting him in a near-dead heat with Mamdani and Pope Leo XIV, who are tied at 20% each.

Trump remains the favorite, but his lead has been far from comfortable. After spending much of the spring trading in the high-20s to low-30s range, he recently slid as low as 21%.

Time named his Person of the Year in 2024 following his election to a second term, calling his comeback to office “unparalleled in American history.”

The swings track a busy few months in office. In February, Trump ordered US strikes on Iran, which drew international criticism before leading to a deal that's left critics questioning whether the war was worth it.

Pope Leo XIV took his title in May of 2025 following the death of Pope Francis who defined his reign as a more progressive voice for the Catholic Church.

Pope Leo has largely continued many of his predecessor's priorities with similar policies that focused on protecting the poor and vulnerable, particularly those being targeted by President Trump’s immigration policies. 

He’s also been one of the few world leaders willing to butt heads with President Trump and his policies. Most recently, Pope Leo seemed to call out President Trump specifically over his deal with Iran. The Daily Beast reported that the Pope issued a statement “warning that world leaders are too often ‘feeding’ wars instead of addressing humanitarian crises.”

Mamdani has emerged as Trump's closest rival on the market, a striking turn for someone who's only been mayor for a few months.

The Ugandan-born Democrat defeated New York Governor Andrew Cuomo who ran as an independent, making him the youngest person in a century to take New York’s mayoral office.

He ran on a largely progressive ticket promising sweeping changes in areas such as universal childcare, expanded public transit, better control over rent and housing and expanded food access for citizens in need.

His influence seems to be reaching beyond his office. The New York Times reported that three of the candidates he backed in local primaries won their races. Mamdani’s influence pushed “to capitalize on his popularity and put more progressives on the ballot” even if they “strained relationships” with other left-leaning parties, political figures and unions.

Traders are also looking further ahead. On Kalshi's Person of the Decade market, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy leads at 39%, followed by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk at 36%, and singer Taylor Swift at 24%.

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