Pro basketball’s trade deadline of February 5 has officially arrived. With that, a big question looms: Will Milwaukee move on from two-time Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo?
On Thursday afternoon, Kalshi’s traders are pricing in a 99% chance that Antetokounmpo either stays in Milwaukee or retires. From there, Giannis being traded to Miami (1¢) or Chicago (1¢) before 3 p.m. ET today is viewed as the next most likely option.
Not trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NBA.
Just last week, Golden State was the perennial frontrunner to land Antetokounmpo on Kalshi. The Dubs had both the capital and willingness, and offered as much to Milwaukee. However, after no deal formed, Golden State pulled the trigger Wednesday night on a trade for forward Kristaps Porzingis, sending Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga to Atlanta in exchange.
That means Golden State has pulled its name out of the Giannis sweepstakes.
With the trade deadline mere hours away, let’s see what Kalshi’s traders are pricing.
Staying put?
Antetokounmpo now has a 99% probability to stay with the franchise that drafted him back in 2013. That has increased significantly since last Thursday, when this option was priced at only 47¢.
The “Greek Freak” has contributed 28.0 PPG in the current campaign. Additionally, Antetokounmpo has sunk 39.5% of his three-point attempts, which is a career-best clip at this time. However, he has not played since January 23. In all, Giannis has missed 19 games in 2025-26.
Milwaukee has earned a 20-29 record by the deadline. That has the team from “Cream City” outside of the playoff field. Kalshi’s markets reflect appropriately, as Milwaukee has a less than 1% chance to win the title this season.
Antetokounmpo has expressed an increased willingness to move on from Milwaukee as of late. He and head coach Doc Rivers have appeared out-of-sync more often than necessary. Rather than hope for a seventh different coach since 2013, Giannis has set his sights outside of Wisconsin.
Regardless, Milwaukee could hold onto the two-way superstar until the offseason. Perhaps the team can find a more mutually beneficial solution over the summer, but something to note: Antetokounmpo will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2026-27 campaign.
Giannis has given 12.5 years to Milwaukee. There is plenty of hardware to show for it, such as a Most Improved Player award, two MVPs and one league championship. All great things eventually come to an end, but at this time, it seems Antetokounmpo will remain in Milwaukee at least through the end of 2025-26.
Other trades
Just because Antetokounmpo is probably staying put, that doesn’t mean there aren’t other moves to keep an eye on. With the deadline clock ticking, Kalshi is giving Memphis a 27% likelihood to trade star point guard Ja Morant.
Moving Morant makes sense considering Memphis is also 20-29, and well outside of the Western postseason picture. From there, Morant and the franchise have had many awkward moments, and the possibility of him being traded has surfaced more recently.
Milwaukee is also showing a 16% chance to ship off forward Kyle Kuzma.
Kuzma is a nine-year vet that has been with the team for the past two seasons. However, his scoring (13.0 PPG in 2025-26) has greatly dwindled since his days in Los Angeles. Perhaps general manager Jon Horst and Doc Rivers try to flip him, as many teams can still use a 6-foot-8 wing player that can rebound and defend.
Another intriguing name here is Sacramento’s Domantas Sabonis. As of now, Sabonis is priced at 14¢ to be traded before today’s deadline. Sabonis has been a do-it-all big man for California’s capital city. Still, Sac is the worst team in the West this year. Expect teams to call about Sabonis right up until 3 p.m. ET.
The takeaway
Antetokounmpo, the most sought-after player of this year’s trade deadline, is most likely staying in Milwaukee for the rest of 2025-26. He is not permanently fixed there, but with Golden State expending its resources on Porzingis, the Dubs are out of contention for Giannis.
Miami, Chicago or Minnesota could make a late offer for “The Greek Freak,” but none were offering as many future first-round picks as Golden State was; trading Antetokounmpo elsewhere at this time would almost feel like a waste.
Keep an eye on other names to be moved today, such as Morant, Kuzma, Sabonis and Zach LaVine.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next team:
To be traded before deadline:
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