President Donald Trump has pardoned Changpeng Zhao, the billionaire founder of Binance, according to The Wall Street Journal. The move follows months of behind-the-scenes lobbying for his release, which was reflected in his relatively favorable odds on Kalshi’s Trump 2025 Pardon market.
In 2023, Zhao pleaded guilty to violating U.S. anti–money-laundering laws and served a four-month sentence before his release in September 2024. But Thursday’s reversal marks a major moment in the Trump administration’s evolving approach to cryptocurrency regulation.
The decision has also raised questions about potential conflicts of interest, since Zhao and Binance have supported the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial venture, which has contributed to a sharp increase in the president’s personal wealth, according to The Wall Street Journal.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump had “exercised his constitutional authority by issuing a pardon for Mr. Zhao, who was prosecuted by the Biden Administration in their war on cryptocurrency.” She added that “the Biden Administration’s war on crypto is over.”
Many Kalshi traders had anticipated the outcome. The contract spent much of the summer trading between 20% and 30%. In September, prices spiked as high as 58% before a major pullback, as Zhao’s lobbying efforts became more public, including outreach to Trump allies and other supporters of the administration’s crypto agenda. But his chances climbed steadily through October before surging to 99¢ after reports of the decision emerged Thursday morning.
Zhao’s release adds to a growing list of headline-making clemencies this month, most notably the surprise commutation of former congressman George Santos’s sentence last week, which traders had previously priced at just 7%.
According to The Hill, Trump’s clemency* order for Santos not only freed him from prison but also canceled all restitution, fines, and conditions of supervision tied to his conviction for wire fraud and aggravated identity theft. Santos had served just three months of a seven-year sentence before Trump’s order.
*Note: Kalshi’s rules for these markets specify that presidential pardons, commutations, and reprieves all count toward a “Yes” resolution.
For months, Zhao’s contract stood out as the strongest favorite among all Trump-related pardon markets. But following his official pardon, Sean “Diddy” Combs has emerged as the new frontrunner.
Earlier this week, Combs’s chances began to climb after TMZ reported that Trump was “vacillating” over a potential commutation for the music mogul, who is serving a federal sentence for prostitution-related charges. The White House quickly denied the claim.
“There is zero truth to the TMZ report,” an official told NBC News, adding that “the President, not anonymous sources, is the final decider on pardons and commutations.”
Despite the denials, Combs’s pardon remains priced at 17¢, the highest in the field. Other active pardon markets on Kalshi include:
Sources: Wall Street Journal, Oct. 23, 2025; NBC News, Oct. 21 & Oct. 23, 2025; The Hill, Oct. 20, 2025; Image: Web Summit.
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