While President Donald Trump considers that latest proposal to end the conflict in Iran, traders are weighing in on the likelihood of a longterm nuclear deal.
The market for the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal prices the chances of a deal being reached before November at 53%. They also price in a 44% chance of a deal before October, and 30% chance of a deal before September.
Traders are also weighing in on when traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal. Markets currently show a 50% chance of a return to normalcy before September, a 41% chance before August, and a 23% chance before July.
“A final determination”
President Trump said in a Truth Social post that he’s considering a proposal from Iran to reach a nuclear deal and open the Strait of Hormuz.
USA Today reported that President Trump is meeting in the White House Situation Room to review Iran’s proposal.
He also wrote on social media that Iran must agree to “never have a Nuclear Weapon or Bomb” and that the strait must be “’immediately open’ with no tolls on shipping.”
CBS News reported that Vice President J.D. Vance told reporters on Thursday the two sides were “not there yet” on a deal to reopen the strait. Iranian state media also said that no agreement had been “finalized or confirmed.”
The Strait of Hormuz
Even if both sides reach a deal, there’s no guarantee that traffic will return to the state it was before the blockade started.
Reuters’ Yawen Chen wrote that the deal “may not restore the pre-war status quo of energy shipments. UBS Evidence Lab estimated as of Wednesday that tanker crossings were running at roughly four per day, compared with nearly 50” before both sides restarted negotiations.
The strait not only has to be cleared but “insurers, crucially, need to be assured that the risk of renewed attacks has receded.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before September: 30%
U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before October: 44%
U.S.-Iran nuclear deal before November: 53%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal before July: 23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal before August: 41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal before September: 50%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
