Volkanovski–Lopes odds: champ holds slim edge

Kalshi markets are pricing Saturday night’s featherweight title rematch as close, even with the champion favored. Traders give Alexander Volkanovski a modest edge over Diego Lopes at UFC 325, a sign that expectations remain cautious after their competitive first meeting.

Rather than pointing to a dominant favorite, the odds suggest a fight where the margin for error is thin.

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In Kalshi’s primary market on the title fight, Volkanovski is priced at 57%, compared with 43% for Lopes.

That gap is narrow, particularly given that Volkanovski won the first matchup by unanimous decision. But traders appear less willing to extrapolate that result into a comfortable repeat.

Pricing has remained stable through fight week, with no late surge toward either side. With volume approaching $1 million, the market reflects sustained interest without a decisive shift in sentiment.

The method-of-victory market adds clarity to why the main odds remain tight.

The most likely outcome is Volkanovski by decision at 38%, consistent with the first fight and with expectations that the champion’s advantage shows over five rounds.

At the same time, Lopes by KO/TKO/DQ at 25% stands out as the second-most likely result. That pricing signals that while traders favor Volkanovski overall, they see Lopes as the more dangerous finisher if the fight turns chaotic.

The rest of the board is more fragmented:

Taken together, the market points to a clear split in expectations: Volkanovski is viewed as the safer round-winner, while Lopes is priced as the fighter more likely to end the fight suddenly.

Elsewhere on the card, Kalshi traders are far less divided on the co-main event between Dan Hooker and Benoît Saint-Denis. Saint-Denis is priced at 76%, compared with 24% for Hooker.

Unlike the title bout, this market has shown little volatility through fight week, with pricing holding steady as volume built.

The contrast with the main event is notable. Where Volkanovski–Lopes remains tightly priced and split across multiple outcomes, traders appear comfortable treating the co-main as a clearer call. The market suggests fewer paths to an upset and less need to hedge across scenarios.

Kalshi odds suggest the title rematch is not being treated as a formality. Volkanovski remains the favorite, but the pricing leaves ample room for volatility, particularly if the fight strays from a decision-heavy script.

Kalshi markets now predict

Method of victory (Volkanovski–Lopes):

Co-main event:

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Sources: Rolling Stone, Jan. 31, 2026; The Athletic, Jan. 31, 2026.

^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions.}