Good morning, traders.

This past week was marked by some major events, mostly concerning sports and of the man who seemed to be at the center of everything all at once, Elon Musk. The U.S. men's national team beat Paraguay 4-1 in their tournament opener, New York defeated San Antonio to win the pro basketball championship, and Elon Musk became the world’s first trillionaire. 

Following up a week like that is tough. Fortunately, there’s still a lot going this week. But before we get to the markets, let’s take a look at Kalshi’s new perpetual futures.

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA World Cup 2026™.}

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If there’s one thing that people love to do whenever a large sports tournament is about to happen, it's to speculate on the outcome. But the reality is that nobody actually knows what the outcome will be until the game is actually played.

Just ask Spain, who, despite being priced at over 90%, were held to a draw yesterday against Cape Verde.

That’s exactly why the first few days of the world soccer cup (hey, lawyers gonna lawyer) are so exciting.

Mexico and South Korea both won their opening games which turned their upcoming match on Thursday, June 18 into one of the first real leverage games of the tournament. Both teams are entering the match with 3 points meaning the winner is likely to take control of Group A. Though a draw would keep things more open for all teams involved, the way Mexico outplayed South Africa seems to have made an impact on which way traders think the match will go.

The United States had a very interesting week after beating Paraguay 4-1 in its opener. A comfortable win is what the U.S. needed but even more importantly, a lot of fans on X noted that the team actually looked good. Australia, after beating Turkey 2-0 in their opener, is set to face off against the U.S. later this week with the result shaping the rest of the tournament for both teams.

Perhaps the most surprising outcome from the early games of last week was the draw between Brazil and Morocco. Although a draw isn’t a disaster for the historical powerhouse country, Brazil definitely has some more motivation for their upcoming game against Haiti. 

While soccer is providing 90 minute blocks of entertainment for people pretending to be working, the Federal Reserve is doing something significantly less fun but probably a bit more important: deciding what to do with interest rates.

The Fed is meeting this week to answer the question of whether they will cut, hike, or hold rates steady. But realistically, almost everyone seems to be thinking the same thing after the latest CPI report showed inflation heating back up. Just take a look at our Fed decision market for June:

Importantly, traders won’t be watching Jerome Powell walk to the mic and sending markets plummeting or skyrocketing depending on whether he says “Good afternoon” or “Hello everyone”. This week will belong to Kevin Warsh who took his oath as Fed chair on May 22. This is the first time traders will get a look at his rate decisions and how he communicates future policy. 

For years traders of both traditional and prediction markets would watch Jerome Powell conferences with the same level of scrutiny of an intelligence agency trying to decode a hostage video. A phrase like “data dependent” could move billions of dollars. But this week the market will get a new main character, and it might take traders some more time to figure out how to read him.

Today, Republicans in the Peach State head to the polls for a pair of consequential runoffs to decide their nomination for two major statewide elections in November. In the race for the Governor’s mansion, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones enters with a lead over billionaire Rick Jackson.

Despite entering the race late, Jackson dominated spending mainly from his personal contributions, lending him the title of favorite for much of the spring. However, a strong initial primary performance quashing other journeyman Republicans with the heralded Trump endorsement catapulted Jones into the lead on May 19th.

Currently, the market gives Jones a 75% chance to earn the Republican nod. Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms secured the Democratic nomination last month without a runoff and will await the winner in November. Currently, the market for the November election is the closest it has been all year, giving the Republican party a slight edge at 51%.

Incumbent Senator Jon Ossoff will also find out who his first challenger as a sitting US Senator will be on Tuesday night, as GOP Representative Mike Collins will look to close the door on political outsider and former football coach Derek Dooley.

Ahead of the initial primary, the market viewed the two almost equally. However, thanks to a Trump endorsement and strong performance at the initial polls, the market has swung dramatically towards Collins. His current chances of representing the party in November are priced at 98%.

But if he makes it to November, Collins will likely have an uphill battle, since Ossoff’s chances of keeping his seat are priced at 83%.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}