The week ahead: Mamdani's Kalshi-call out

Last night in New York City, mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani spoke at the “NYC Is Not For Sale” rally. As you’d expect, he decried the current state of the city, and described how he would set about improving the lives of average New Yorkers. But he also talked about important things, like Kalshi’s NYC Mayoral Election markets!

(Click here to see our NYC Mayoral markets.)

“When I walked the length of Manhattan just a few days before the election, hundreds of New Yorkers marched alongside me,” Mamdani said. “And when we strode into Times Square under a billboard with [Kalshi] odds that showed Cuomo’s chances of winning at nearly 80 percent, we knew that the so-called experts were set to get it wrong yet again.”

He went on to cite Kalshi’s current odds for the NYC mayoral race, which have him as a huge favorite to win, along with a warning to his supporters not to grow complacent.

“When you see the Kalshi odds that have our chances of victory in the 90s, know this: you are reading the same things that Andrew Cuomo read when he went to sleep each night in June, believing that his victory was promised,” Mamdani said.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s really great to see prominent politicians calling out Kalshi’s odds, even if they are telling people to take them with a grain of salt.

But what Mamdani fails to mention is that in the final days before the primary, his odds on Kalshi were surging. In fact, yours truly even wrote a newsletter about Cuomo’s crumbling odds.

By election day, our markets had Mamdani and Cuomo neck and neck.

That’s the beauty of prediction markets. They move in real time, as new information comes to light and our traders’ consensus shifts. So yes, Cuomo’s odds did reach as high as 90% in May. But as the election neared, Kalshi was the canary in the coal mine, warning everyone that the race was shifting.

But this time around, there are no such warning signs. Mamdani’s odds dropped to around 70% just after the primary, once it became clear that Cuomo was going to stay in the race as an independent. But since then, it’s been smooth sailing, as his odds have trended upward. He now has a 92% chance of victory.

Keep in mind that Mamdani was able to pull off his surprising comeback in the primary thanks in large part to his performance during the Democratic candidate debates. In fact, Cuomo’s odds first showed signs of trouble (before what proved to be a dead-cat bounce) after a lackluster debate performance.

But there was no noticeable momentum shift after the recent general election debates, which is probably bad news for Cuomo. And with just over a week to go, it seems very much like Mamdani’s race to lose. (NOT TRADING ADVICE!)

_{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.}

Well, the government is still shut down. And while many of our top traders were predicting that it wouldn’t last all that long, it’s already become the second-longest shutdown in history. And our current forecast indicates it will surpass the all-time record of 35 by a whopping 10 days. There’s even a 51% chance that the shutdown will last beyond 45 days. Will it happen, or will mounting pressure force the Democrats and Republicans to reach a deal?

Last week the White House (well, most of it, anyway) announced that President Trump was pardoning Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the Binance crypto exchange.

“The Biden Administration’s war on crypto is over,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, implying that the “Biden war on money laundering” is also over.

At any rate, in the wake of Zhao’s pardon, crypto enthusiast Roger ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ Ver and FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried have shot to the top of our Trump pardon market, while Sean “Diddy” Combs is now the third most likely candidate. If I were Diddy, I’d launch a LUBE coin ASAP.

Random markets Terry would love to trade if he didn't work here.

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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}