With Election Day less than one week away, Kalshi's Senate control market shows Democrats at 64%, compared with 36% for Republicans.
The market has moved in Democrats' favor over recent weeks, as polling showed Democratic candidates opening leads in several states that voted for Trump in 2024.
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What do the polls say?
PBS News reported that the PBS News/NPR/Marist poll found that 52% of likely voters favored Democratic candidates in their congressional districts, compared with 44% who favored Republicans. The results measure national House voting preferences rather than individual Senate races.
The poll also shows that Democratic turnout could be higher on early voting and on Election Day.
The New York Times reported that Senate polls are also showing some strong leads for Democratic Senate candidates who are "running strong in Iowa and Alaska, and on the cusp of victory in North Carolina, playing offense in what should be safe Republican terrain. At the same time, independent candidates are within striking distance of Republican Senate candidates in Montana, Nebraska, and even South Dakota."
“This is as good a political environment as Democrats could ever wish,” Amy Walter, the editor of the Cook Political Report, told The Times, “and as bad as Republicans could ever imagine.”
What states are in play?
Several Senate contests in states that have recently supported Republican candidates have become competitive, creating additional opportunities for Democrats.
ABC News reported that 35 Senate seats will be on the ballot this Election Day and a "key handful of them will be critical in determining whether Democrats or Republicans control the chamber next year."
The race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers in Michigan is considered “lean Democrat,” and five additional races are considered “toss-ups.”
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in more than three decades, but polling suggests a competitive race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
“Democrats hope Paxton’s lack of favorability coupled with larger concerns about affordability could be enough to end their three-decade Senate drought,” ABC News wrote.
Alaska has four candidates, including Sen. Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola, Dan J. Sullivan, and Gerald Heikes. Republicans are showing serious concerns about the election, as evidenced by the election lawsuit that the Department of Justice filed last week in the event that Dan Sullivan does not win the race.
Things are also a toss-up in Ohio, where former Sen. Sherrod Brown is vying against appointed Sen. Jon Husted, who filled the seat vacated by Vice President J.D. Vance in 2025.
“Though Ohio has been moving increasingly toward Republicans in recent elections, Husted faces a tough race amid growing concerns about affordability and data centers in his home state,” ABC News wrote.
Kansas is a state that’s been comfortably red for some time, but now Adam Hamilton has a chance of taking the seat for Democrats away from Sen. Roger Marshall by emphasizing “Marshall’s ties to the unpopular policies that have created economic challenges for voters,” ABC News wrote.
Maine and Iowa are also in “toss-up” territory, despite Troy Jackson being a late replacement in the Maine Senate race, and the fact that “there are no Democrats in Iowa’s congressional delegation.”
With Election Day approaching, races in traditionally Republican states have taken on greater importance in the battle for Senate control. Democrats are seeking to gain the four seats needed to secure a majority, while Republicans are working to defend their incumbents in several competitive contests. The results on Nov. 3 will determine whether the market's expectations translate into a change in Senate leadership.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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