Kalshi’s traders expect an extremely tight playoff matchup this Friday between No. 9 Alabama (10-3) and No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2), with both teams priced at 50%.
Oklahoma has the benefit of hosting, as the game will be played at Norman’s Memorial Stadium. Kickoff is set for December 19 at 8 p.m. ET.
The tide is rising
Alabama, in its second year under head coach Kalen DeBoer, is one of college football’s most decorated programs.
In 2025, the team’s defense was one of the stingiest units in the nation. After 13 contests, they’ve held opponents to only 17.4 points per game (PPG). Bama has been especially strong against the pass, surrendering just 157.7 yards per game (YPG) through the air. They are currently listed 13th overall on ESPN’s SP+ rankings.
The current campaign started slowly. After losing the season opener to Florida State, Alabama managed to string together eight consecutive wins. From there, they suffered two more losses: one to Georgia, and one to Oklahoma.
Historically, Alabama football has a 2-5-1 record against OU. When the schools met last month, Oklahoma upset Alabama in Tuscaloosa by a score of 23-21 after OU intercepted an Alabama pass late in the game and returned it for an 87-yard touchdown.
Thanks to his performance at Alabama, DeBoer now has a 15% chance of landing a job as the next head coach of the University of Michigan. He is currently the third-most likely to fill the position.
Sooner or later
Oklahoma football is in its fourth season with head coach Brent Venables at the helm. He has made solid progress with this group from Norman, as they have a chance to finish the campaign with their best record since 2021.
Like Bama, Oklahoma is powered by a swarming defense. OU has given up 13.9 PPG, which is the seventh-best clip in the country. From there, they are a top-five unit when it comes to stopping the run; Oklahoma has held opponents to only 81.4 YPG rushing.
The team also suffered just two losses through the recent regular season, falling short against Texas and Mississippi.
Entering Friday’s game, Oklahoma has been slightly sluggish on offense. They have failed to score more than 17 points in each of their past two outings (Missouri, Louisiana State) despite earning victories in both.
Subsequently, Kalshi’s traders are not putting much stock in Oklahoma to go the distance this year. Within the 2025-26 college football champion market, OU is trading at just three cents.
Per ESPN’s SP+ scale, Oklahoma is placed 12th in Division I football at this time. There, OU is projected to have a top-three defense.
Market movement
When this market opened, Kalshi’s traders had Alabama at 52¢. Since then, we have seen the field flip on numerous occasions, but neither Bama nor Oklahoma have been priced above 52%.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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