Alaska Senate race odds: Peltola heavily favored as judge rejects Trump lawsuit

The Alaska Senate race has become one of the most closely watched contests of the 2026 Midterm elections. With Election Day approaching on November 3, Kalshi traders increasingly favor Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola over Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan.

As of November 1, Kalshi gives Peltola approximately a 72% chance of winning, compared with 28% for Sullivan. The numbers represent a dramatic shift from February 20, when Sullivan was priced at a 56.7% chance of winning.

The race has also drawn national attention following President Donald Trump's efforts to intervene in the election. On November 1, a federal judge dismissed the Justice Department's lawsuit seeking to prevent Alaska from certifying the Senate results if Sullivan loses. The Justice Department has indicated it will appeal.

With the Senate majority potentially at stake, Alaska's contest has become a major battleground for both parties heading into the final days of the Midterm campaign.

The latest traditional polling tells a more competitive story. A New York Times/Siena poll conducted through November 1st found Peltola ahead by just two points (48–46%), the narrowest margin among all battleground Senate races in the survey. Peltola was also the only Democrat polled to lose ground since September. The Times also conducted an investigation finding that political operatives aligned with Peltola had recruited Daniel J. Sullivan to run as a Republican candidate, an allegation her campaign has denied.

Kalshi traders currently favor Mary Peltola to defeat Dan Sullivan in the November 3 Senate election.

The latest market odds are:

Peltola's advantage in the market makes her the clear favorite heading into Election Day. Sullivan, who is seeking reelection, has seen his chances fall considerably since the beginning of the year.

The market also reflects the unusual presence of Daniel J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who shares the incumbent senator's name and is also running in the election. His candidacy has become a major point of controversy in the final weeks of the campaign.

One of the biggest developments in the Alaska Senate market has been the decline in Senator Dan Sullivan's projected chances of winning.

On February 20, 2026, Kalshi traders gave Sullivan a 56.7% chance of winning reelection. At that point, he was favored to retain his Senate seat. However, the market has shifted considerably over the following months.

By November 1, Sullivan's chances had dropped to approximately 28%, a decline of nearly 29 percentage points.

Peltola has moved into the clear lead, with traders now giving her roughly a 72% chance of winning the seat.

The movement suggests that expectations surrounding the Alaska Senate race have changed significantly throughout the 2026 campaign. What initially appeared to be a favorable reelection environment for Sullivan has developed into a difficult contest for the Republican incumbent.

While prediction-market odds do not guarantee an election result, the shift demonstrates how dramatically traders' expectations have changed since February.

The Alaska Senate race received another major development on November 1, when a federal judge dismissed the Trump administration's attempt to interfere with the certification of the election results.

The Justice Department had filed a lawsuit seeking to prevent Alaska from certifying the Senate election if Sullivan narrowly loses. The administration argued that the presence of Daniel J. Sullivan on the ballot could confuse voters and potentially affect the outcome.

U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason rejected the request, finding that the federal government had not provided a workable plan for separating and investigating ballots while protecting voter secrecy. She also questioned how the requested relief could be implemented after early voting had already begun.

The Justice Department announced that it would appeal the decision.

The lawsuit followed President Trump's public push for federal intervention in the race. Trump and other Republicans have raised concerns about the second Sullivan's candidacy, while Peltola has denied knowledge of any effort by her campaign to recruit him.

The ruling is particularly significant because Alaska's Senate seat could help determine which party controls the chamber after the Midterms. It also places the election administration dispute directly into the final days of an already competitive campaign.

For Sullivan, the timing adds another layer of pressure as he attempts to overcome Peltola's substantial advantage in the Kalshi market.

Alaska is more than just another closely watched Senate contest. The outcome could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate for the final two years of President Trump's term.

Republicans are defending a narrow Senate majority, while Democrats are attempting to win enough seats to take control of the chamber. A Democratic victory in Alaska would represent an important step toward that goal.

Kalshi's market currently places Peltola in a strong position, but Sullivan's remaining 28% chance shows that traders have not completely ruled out a Republican victory.

With Election Day only one day away, the Alaska Senate race remains one of the most consequential contests to watch.

Kalshi's latest Alaska Senate market odds show Mary Peltola as the clear favorite to defeat incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan on November 3.

The current market outlook:

Sullivan's chances have fallen from 56.7% on February 20 to approximately 28% on November 1, marking a major shift in the market's expectations.

The federal judge's decision to dismiss the Trump administration's lawsuit adds another significant development just days before voters head to the polls. Although the Justice Department plans to appeal, the ruling leaves the state's election process moving forward as planned.

For now, Kalshi traders see Peltola as the favorite to flip Alaska's Senate seat for Democrats. Whether she can turn that market advantage into an Election Day victory could have major consequences for the balance of power in Washington.

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