Algeria and Austria meet in Kansas City tonight to settle second place in Group J, with Argentina already locked in as winners and Jordan already eliminated. Kalshi traders see this one as a coin flip with a lean toward the draw, pricing Austria at 28%, Algeria at 26%, and a tie at 46%.
The match kicks off at the same time as Jordan vs. Argentina in Dallas, where Lionel Messi and the defending champions close out the group with nothing left to play for but pride.
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What's at stake in Group J
Argentina won the group with six points after beating both Algeria and Austria, while Jordan was eliminated after two losses. Algeria and Austria are tied on three points apiece, with Austria ahead on goal difference. A draw sends Austria through as runners-up and leaves Algeria fighting for one of the eight best third-place spots, while a win puts either team through outright. Kalshi traders give Austria a 77% chance to advance, with Algeria at 71%. Both coaches have publicly rejected the idea of playing for a draw, even though the runner-up is on track to face Spain in the round of 32 while the third-place finisher would draw a path through Belgium or Egypt instead. Algeria's Vladimir Petkovic said there is "no 'if' or 'but' in football" heading into the match.
Algeria seeks redemption against Austria
Algeria and Austria have met once before at a World Cup, a 2-0 Austria win in 1982 that came just days before the infamous "Disgrace of Gijon," when West Germany beat Austria 1-0 in a result both sides were accused of arranging to eliminate Algeria on goal difference. FIFA ruled neither side had broken any rules, but the history still hangs over tonight's rematch.
Algeria opened this World Cup with a 3-0 loss to Argentina before beating Jordan 2-1, with Nadhir Benbouali and Amine Gouiri scoring second-half goals to overturn an early Nizar Al-Rashdan opener. Austria lost 2-0 to Argentina after opening with a 3-1 win over Jordan, where a Yazan Al Arab own goal and a Marko Arnautovic penalty separated the sides after Romano Schmid and Ali Olwan had traded first-half goals.
Messi and Argentina close out the group
Argentina has nothing left to play for in the group but already has plenty to show for it. Lionel Messi opened the tournament with a hat trick against Algeria, then scored twice against Austria to pass Miroslav Klose as the all-time leading scorer in men's World Cup history with 18 goals. Kalshi traders give Argentina an 87% chance to beat Jordan, with the tie at 10% and Jordan at 5%.
Jordan was eliminated after losing its first two matches, but the tournament debutants have already scored their first-ever World Cup goal and pushed both Austria and Algeria deep into their respective matches. A win tonight would be a fitting send-off, even with nothing on the line. Argentina already knows its round of 32 opponent regardless of tonight's result, with the Group H runner-up waiting on July 3.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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