In less than 24 hours, voters in Wisconsin will head to the polls, and Kalshi traders already have clear favorites for the Democratic and Republican gubernatorial primaries.
The market for the Democratic primary race shows candidate Francesca Hong with 95.9% chance to win the nomination, followed by David Crowley at 4.2%, and Kelda Roys at 0.1%.
The Republican primary market tells a similar story. Tom Tiffany is in the lead at 99.4%, followed by Andy Manske at 1% and Tommy Thompson at 0.1%.
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The Democratic primary
Once again, a more progressive Democratic candidate leads in the primary polls following the squeaker win of Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate primary.
The Guardian’s Rachel Leingang wrote that the Democratic Socialist candidate has “surged ahead in the final weeks of the chaotic Democratic primary to be Wisconsin’s next governor.” She also built her profile on a grassroots campaign of small pop-up events, “that pushed her to the verge of clinching the Democratic nomination for governor in a marquee battleground state.”
She's also become a key target in Republican circles beyond her opponents in the Wisconsin governor's race. A series of social media posts she made calling for an end to Thanksgiving and criticism of Valentine's Day came back to haunt her during her campaign and became fodder for leading Republican critics on Capitol Hill.
Even if she wins the nomination, it appears she’ll have an uphill battle defeating the Republican front runner.
The Republican primary
On the GOP side, Tiffany is favored by a wide margin both on the Kalshi market and in polling among likely Republican voters. He also presents a series of challenges to his opponent on the other side of the political aisle.
The Guardian reports that Tiffany “has more cash than any of the Democratic candidates so far, and Republicans are sure to flood the market to boost him.”
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck reports that Tiffany has $5 million to spend on his campaign thanks to his recent fundraising efforts, “10 times as much cash as any Democratic candidate.” Crowley leads Democrats’ fundraising efforts in the Wisconsin governor’s primary with just $775,813 in funding.
The extra funding means Tiffany can blanket the media with campaign advertising leading up to the November election, no matter who becomes the Democratic candidate.
“The vast majority of what Tiffany raised in July came from the state Republican party, which transferred $4 million to the Tiffany campaign in two separate donations,” Beck wrote. “The transfers were made after the party received $9 million across three donations between May and July from megadonors Elizabeth and Richard Uihlein and another $2.5 million from Diane Hendricks in June.”
The Wisconsin governor's race
Traders seem to agree on the Republican Party’s chances in the Wisconsin governor’s race when it comes to November.
The Wisconsin Republican Party now has a 62% chance of winning, followed by the Democratic Party at 39%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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