The Milwaukee Brewers (74-45) visit the San Diego Padres (63-57) today at Petco Park, with first pitch at 9:40 p.m. ET. Kalshi traders have the Brewers priced at 55% and the Padres at 45%, as of this writing.
Milwaukee still holds the best record in baseball and leads the NL Central by 5.0 games over the Cubs, a real but not insurmountable cushion with roughly six weeks of the season remaining. San Diego sits third in the NL West but is fighting for playoff position elsewhere, just outside the final National League Wild Card spot. This is the second game of a three-game series that opened Monday with a Padres win, a rare loss for a Milwaukee team built for October.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with MLB.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres: Aug. 11, 2026
Kalshi traders are still leaning heavily on Milwaukee's season-long dominance despite Monday's result. San Diego's bullpen has kept the Padres in close games all year, and Monday was no exception. Harrison's stronger overall numbers this season are enough to keep Milwaukee a solid favorite, even on the road against a team playing meaningful August baseball.
Milwaukee is without right-hander Brandon Woodruff (shoulder, out for the season) and prospect Quinn Priester (recovering from thoracic outlet surgery), while left-hander Kyle Harrison is starting today despite being day-to-day with calf cramping. San Diego is missing right-hander Joe Musgrove, still working back from Tommy John surgery with Triple-A El Paso.
Harrison carries a 9-2 record with a 2.84 ERA and 111 strikeouts this season, opposite Buehler, who is 6-5 with a 5.07 ERA and 95 strikeouts.
San Diego opened the series with a 3-2 win Monday, as Jackson Merrill's two-run homer in the seventh off Logan Henderson proved the difference. Milwaukee had won five of its previous six games before the loss, while San Diego has won 12 of its last 16 to climb within a game of the final Wild Card spot.
World Series Odds
Kalshi traders have Milwaukee at 9.5% to win the World Series, up a point recently. Los Angeles remains the favorite at 38.2%, but Milwaukee's number reflects a roster with MLB's best record even after losing two projected rotation pieces for the season.
Postseason Odds
Kalshi traders have San Diego at 50% to make the playoffs, up seven points and now a true coin flip after Monday's win. Houston (63%) and Texas (55%) are also climbing in a Wild Card picture that is tightening across both leagues.
Kalshi markets now predict:
Milwaukee remains favored at 55% today, but San Diego's Monday win and its climbing postseason number are signs that the Padres are starting to play October-level baseball in early August.
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image source: Ryan Casey Aguinaldo
This article contains content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with Major League Baseball.
